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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jun 23 2020
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. A small area of low pressure located more than 1500 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce an area of cloudiness and showers. Although the shower
activity has become a little less organized overnight,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the
next few days while it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have not become any
better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are
forecast to remain conducive for gradual development over the next
couple of days, but the disturbance is forecast to move over cooler
waters after that time which should inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
3. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and the system is likely to become a
tropical depression in a few days while it moves west-northwestward
parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
4. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec by late this week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system
over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward parallel to the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Forecaster Brown
Original author: NHC
