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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 061749
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Tue Dec 6 2022

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1730 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Central Atlantic Storm Warning:

    A large area of low pressure located over the central
    subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern
    Leeward Islands, centered near 26N54W and with a minimum central
    pressure of 1001 mb, continues to produce a broad area of
    showers and thunderstorms in the northern semicircle of the low.
    Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for
    development and a subtropical or tropical storm could form in
    the next couple of days. By Thursday night or Friday, the low
    will move northeastward over cooler waters and interact with a
    mid-latitude trough, limiting subtropical or tropical
    development of the system.

    Regardless of subtropical or tropical development, gale force
    winds are already occurring with this feature. The area of 35 to
    40 kt winds exists mainly in the N semicircle of the low, N of
    28N between 45W and 55W. Strong to near gale force winds are
    within 240 nm of the center. Winds in the N semicircle will
    increase through tonight and reach storm force Wed. Winds will
    then diminish slightly with gales continuing Wed night through
    Thu night. Seas are already reaching 16 to 20 ft to the N and W
    of the center, with a broad area of 12 ft or higher seas N of
    22N between 45W and 63W. The radius of hazardous seas will
    continue to expand over the next few days, with waves reaching
    as high as 30 ft to the N and W of the center Wed and Wed night.
    More information about this system, including storm warnings,
    can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
    National Weather Service at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
    near 10N14W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 06N30W
    to 05N46W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is south of
    the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis from 02N to 06N between 10W and
    20W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 03N to 07N
    between 29W and 37W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A 1021 mb surface high pressure centered offshore the Florida
    Big Bend is dominating the Gulf of Mexico this morning,
    precluding any convection. Light to gentle mainly SE winds
    dominate the eastern half of the Gulf, with seas 3 ft or less.
    Moderate S to SE return flow is over the Gulf west of 87W where
    seas are 3 to 5 ft. Buoy observations west of 94W are recording
    locally fresh winds, where seas are up to 5 ft. Fog within 30 nm
    of the northeastern Gulf coast is beginning to dissipate, but
    limited visibility may still exist in some areas.

    For the forecast, high pressure centered across the NE Gulf will
    meander about the NE Gulf and North Florida through Fri night.
    Moderate to fresh return flow will prevail W of 92W through Wed
    night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The pressure gradient between high pressure over Florida and
    lower pressure in the southern and eastern Caribbean is allowing
    for fresh to strong NE winds offshore Colombia, in the Windward
    Passage, south of Hispaniola and south of Cuba and the Cayman
    Islands, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. A recent satellite
    scatterometer pass reveals moderate to fresh winds covering the
    remainder of the western, southwestern, and central Caribbean
    west of 70W, where seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft. Winds are mainly
    moderate and northerly in the eastern basin. Seas in the east
    are 3 to 5 ft, except 5 to 7 ft in and near Atlantic passages,
    due to long period northerly swell. No significant convection is
    occurring in the Caribbean this morning.

    For the forecast, low pressure across the central Atlantic will
    deepen during the next few days, inducing NE winds across much
    of the basin, and fresh to locally strong NE winds through the
    Caribbean Passages, in the lee of Cuba, and offshore Colombia
    into Thu night. Large NE swell across the central Atlantic will
    move through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters
    through the weekend.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
    gale-producing low pressure SE of Bermuda that has a potential
    for tropical or subtropical development over the next 48 hours.
    Storm force winds are expected with this low over portions of
    the waters starting Wed, regardless of tropical or subtropical
    development.

    The powerful and strengthening low pressure is dominating
    weather across much of the basin. The pressure gradient between
    this system and high pressure over the eastern U.S. is allowing
    for fresh to strong N winds north of 20N between 71W and 60W
    where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Mainly moderate NE to E winds are
    between 71W and the Florida Peninsula where seas are 5 to 7 ft,
    except over the N Bahamas seas are below 6 ft. On the eastern
    side of the deepening low, a stationary front extends along 27N,
    supporting fresh to strong NE winds north of the boundary out to
    28W.

    The far eastern Atlantic is dominated by a 1018 mb high pressure
    center located just north of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gentle to
    moderate anticyclonic flow surrounds the high, remaining south
    of 27N and extending out to near 44W. North of 24N and east of
    25W, winds increase to fresh from the SW due to an incoming cold
    front that extends from 31N23W to 26N29W.

    For the forecast for areas W of 55W, much of the region will be
    dominated by the previously discussed low pressure NE of the
    Leeward Islands, that is described and forecast in more detail
    in the Special Features section above. Otherwise, large
    long-period north to northeast swell will impact the Atlantic
    waters and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas
    and the E Caribbean with high seas throughout the week, with
    large E swell reaching the Florida offshore waters N of 26N
    early Fri through Sat.

    $$
    MORA