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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 201816
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Sat Jul 20 2024

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 19N southward,
    and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered showers are
    seen from 07N to 09N between 26W and 34W.

    A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 76W from eastern Cuba
    southward into northwestern Colombia. It is moving westward at
    near 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over
    Jamaica and eastern Cuba.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Mauritania near Nouakchott, then extends southwestward across
    11N30W to 09N49W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N49W to
    10N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
    occurring south of the trough from 08N to 11N between
    Guinea/Guinea-Bissau coast and 19W. Widely scattered showers are
    seen farther west from 05N to 08N between 34W and 45W. No
    significant convection is seen near the ITCZ.

    The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing
    isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa
    Rica and Panama.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface trough reaches northeastward from northwestern Gulf to a
    1015 mb low near Houston, Texas then turns eastward to another
    1015 mb low near New Orleans, Louisiana. Scattered showers and
    isolated thunderstorms are found across the northern Gulf, north
    of 26N. Convergent southeasterly winds are producing isolated
    thunderstorms over the west-central Gulf. A broad surface ridge
    runs southwestward from central Florida to a 1017 mb high near
    Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to
    4 ft are present across the southern Gulf, including the Bay of
    Campeche and Straits of Florida. Mostly gentle S to SW winds and 1
    to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

    For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in place across
    the Gulf over the next several days. It will support gentle to
    locally moderate E to SE winds and slight seas. Pulsing moderate
    to fresh winds are expected near and northwest of the Yucatan
    Peninsula during the evening and nighttime hours due to local
    effects.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A large 1029 mb high over the north-central Atlantic near 33N55W
    continues to support a trade-wind pattern across much of the
    Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades are coupling with divergent winds
    aloft to trigger Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
    and near Hispaniola, and across the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to
    the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional
    weather in the Caribbean Sea.

    Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident
    at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and 4
    to 6 ft seas are noted at the north-central and eastern basin,
    including the Mona Passage. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to
    4 ft in ENE swell are found near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to
    moderate easterly winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere
    in the Caribbean Sea.

    For the forecast, after the passage of the aforementioned tropical
    wave, trade winds and associated seas will diminish slightly on
    Tue. Winds and seas are expected to increase again across the
    eastern and central basin Tue night into Wed as the Atlantic high
    pressure strengthens some.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    An upper-level trough reaches southwestward from a low near 30N67W
    across the southeast Bahamas to central Cuba. Divergent winds
    related these features are enhancing scattered showers and
    isolated thunderstorms from 20N to 24N between 69W and 73W,
    including the southeast and central Bahamas. Refer to the Tropical
    Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in
    the Atlantic Basin.

    A broad surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1029 mb high
    near 33N55W to beyond central Florida. It is supporting gentle to
    moderate NE to SSE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present north of
    20N between 30W and the Florida-Georgia coast, except fresh to
    locally strong E to SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas near the southeast
    Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. For the tropical Atlantic
    from 10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to
    moderate NNE to ENE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist. Gentle to
    locally moderate southerly winds and monsoonal westerly winds with
    4 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder
    of the Atlantic Basin.

    For the forecast west of 35W, the surface ridge will continue to
    dominate the Atlantic. The associated ridge will slowly lift
    northward to near 30N Mon through midweek. The related pressure
    gradient will support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of
    26N, with winds pulsing to strong during the late afternoons and
    evenings off the northern coast of Hispaniola into next week. The
    northern portion of a tropical wave will move through the waters
    south of 24N through Mon accompanied by scattered to numerous
    showers and thunderstorms, some of which may produce strong gusty
    winds and rough seas.

    $$

    Chan