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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 211205
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    705 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1145 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Broad strong high pressure extending from the western Atlantic
    into the Gulf of Mexico is creating a gradient tight enough to
    support winds to gale force off the coast of Colombia through
    later this morning. However, strong to near gale-force winds will
    remain through Monday. See the latest NHC High Seas Forecast
    under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 06N11W and
    continues to 04N20W. The ITCZ begins near 04N20W and extends to
    03N37W to 0N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm N
    of the ITCZ and within 210 nm S of it.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    Ridging extends across the SW N Atlantic, across Florida and into
    the Gulf. Fresh southeast return flow is observed over the
    northwest Gulf between the ridge and lower pressure over the
    central Plains. Fresh easterlies are also noted over the Straits
    of Florida and Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere moderate east to
    southeast winds persist across the northern Gulf, with lighter
    flow over the southwest Gulf. A mid-level short-wave trough over
    the SE CONUS extending across the E Gulf and ridging over the
    Caribbean continue to support diffluent flow over the NW Caribbean
    and into portions of the SE Gulf. This environment aloft along
    with shallow moisture is supporting isolated showers in the
    Yucatan channel and Florida Straits. Patch fog is being reported
    off the central coast of Louisiana, but otherwise visibility
    remains good. The moderate to fresh SE winds will continue across
    the western Gulf through this evening ahead of a cold front moving
    southeast off the Texas coast around sunrise on Mon. The cold
    front will extend from the mouth of the Mississippi to Veracruz
    Mexico late Mon, and then stall from southwest Florida to near
    Veracruz Mexico on Tue night. Remnants of the front will lift N on
    Wed and Thu.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across the
    northwest Caribbean, related to divergence aloft at the base a
    sharp upper trough extending from the SE CONUS into the E Gulf.
    Fresh to near gale-force trade winds are noted in latest
    scatterometer data and buoy observations over much of the central
    Caribbean, lee of Cuba and Windward Passage with the strongest
    winds being along the coast of Colombia. Seas are reaching 10 to
    14 ft over the south central Caribbean with highest seas off
    Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the eastern
    Caribbean and east of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Persistent
    ridging north of the area will allow strong to near gale force
    trades to pulse along the northwest coast of Colombia through Thu
    night. Strong east winds are forecast across the Central Caribbean
    waters on Sun, diminishing slightly on Mon as the ridge weakens.
    Moderate to fresh trades will continue across the tropical Atlc
    waters E of the Windwards through Thu night.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Ridging extends along roughly 30N, anchored by a 1026 mb high
    pressure area centered near 30N68W. Divergence aloft on the east
    side of an upper trough over the E Gulf of Mexico is supporting a
    few showers off the Florida coast and across the northern and
    central Bahamas. A cold front reaches from 30N41W to 21N62W. A
    recent scatterometer pass showed fresh trade winds across the
    Turks/Caicos and southern Bahamas, along the dissipating
    stationary front trailing the end of the cold front. Scattered
    showers are noted N of 22N between 33W and 46W. Farther east,
    1035 mb high pressure is centered SW of Portugal, with an
    associated ridge extending over the region north of 20N,
    supporting fresh to strong NE winds off the coast of North Africa
    between the Canary Islands and Cabo Verde. Farther south, moderate
    to fresh trade persist across the deep tropics. The High pressure
    will shift east to just southwest of Bermuda through Mon, then
    shift north of Bermuda Mon night allowing a cold front to move off
    the northeast Florida coast Tue morning. The cold front will
    reach from near Bermuda to Straits of Florida Wed night and from
    27N65W to Central Cuba on Thu night. Strengthening high pres in
    the wake of the front will support strong NE wind W of 73W.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    Ramos