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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    513
    AXNT20 KNHC 272227
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Tue Jun 28 2022

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf
    of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and
    Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The
    following information is based on satellite imagery, weather
    observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2200 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    The tropical wave located well ESE of the southern Windward Islands
    and associated low pressure have become better organized this
    afternoon. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 8.6N
    50.9W at 27/2100 UTC or 630 nm E of Trinidad moving WNW at 16 kt.
    Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained
    wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to
    isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 45W
    and 55W. Peak seas are near 11 ft. The poorly-defined center of
    Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is expected to continue moving W to
    WNW fairly quickly over the next several days. The environment
    appears favorable for development, and a tropical storm will
    likely form of this system before it reaches the southern Windward
    Islands. Winds to tropical storm force are expected over portions
    of the southern Windward Islands Tue night and Wed. Please read
    the latest NHC Public Advisory at
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
    Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
    details.

    East Atlantic Gale Warning: The Azores High combined with a
    persisting low pressure area over Algeria is inducing gale force
    N winds near the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone of Agadir.
    These gales are expected to continue through 28/03 UTC.
    Seas will likely be 10 to 12 ft in the area. Please read the
    latest high seas forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
    http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis along 29W,
    extending from the equator to 17N, and moving W at around 20 kt.
    Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed
    from 04N-10N between 23W-32W.

    A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 40W,
    extending from 01N to 16N and moving W around 15 kt. Scattered
    moderate convection is noted from 05N-10N between 38W-44W.

    A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis along 69W,
    south of 17N and moving W at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted south of 17N between 60W-70W including N
    Venezuela.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near
    14N17W to 12N19W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N19W to 07N26W,
    continues from 06N29W to 08N38W, then from 08N40W to 09N49W.
    Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-08N east of 18W.
    See the tropical waves section for information about additional
    convective activity.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A weak low pressure trough extends from the central Louisiana
    coast S to near 27N90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    north of 27N between 89W and 93W. A weak pressure gradient across
    the region is supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds and
    seas in the 1-2 ft range.

    For the forecast, the trough will drift westward over the next
    few days. Weak low pressure is expected to form from the remnants
    of the trough across the north-central Gulf tonight and drift west
    and inland through Wed. Elsewhere, a surface ridge will dominate
    the Gulf waters through the middle of the week, supporting mainly
    gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please see Special Features Section Above for details on Potential
    Tropical Cyclone Two.

    A tropical wave continues to generate showers and thunderstorms
    with gusty winds across portions of the eastern Caribbean Sea. See
    the Tropical Waves section for details. A weak pressure gradient
    between the Bermuda High well north of the area and a 1011 mb
    Colombian low hear 10N78W is forcing moderate to fresh E trades in
    the central and eastern Caribbean and gentle to moderate E trades
    in the western Caribbean. Seas are 4-6 ft in the central and
    eastern Caribbean and 2-4 ft in the western Caribbean. The eastern
    end of the Pacific's monsoon trough extends from Central America
    at 10N83W to Colombia at 10N78W and is producing scattered
    moderate convection south of 12N between 75W-80W.

    For the forecast, fresh trade winds over the south-central
    Caribbean will continue through today as the Atlantic ridge
    remains centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. Elsewhere,
    mainly moderate trades will prevail.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please see the Special Features Section above for details on
    Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and on a Gale Warning off the coast
    of Morocco.


    The subtropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1033 mb Bermuda High
    near 40N42W and an Azores High near 38N21W. The pressure
    gradient between this system and lower pressures along the ITCZ
    results in fresh to locally strong E trades from 10N-20N between
    45W- 60W as well as north of 20N east of 20W with seas 7-10 ft.
    Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3-6 ft. An upper-
    level trough just east of the Florida peninsula is inducing a
    surface trough from 22N72W to 26N68W along with scattered
    moderate/isolated strong convection from 21N-26N between 68W-77W.

    For the forecast W of 55W, the trough will drift westward and
    weaken during the next few days. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure
    will remain centered across the central Atlantic near 44N. A
    strong tropical wave will reach near 60W by late Tue, possibly as
    a tropical cyclone, then move quickly through the eastern
    Caribbean Sea through Wed night, and the central Caribbean through
    Thu evening. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas with this
    wave as it moves W across the region.

    $$
    Konarik