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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook
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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs
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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs
Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion
AXNT20 KNHC 161202
Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jun 16 2021
Updated to include the latest Tropical Weather Outlook
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of
Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low
pressure area. Fresh to strong NW-N winds are noted within 60 nm
of the coast of Veracruz where seas are 3 to 5 ft. This system
will move little during the next day or so, and little if any
development is expected during that time due to interaction with
land. However, the broad disturbance should begin to move
northward on Thu, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
late Thu or on Fri when the low moves across the western Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue
over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the
next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to affect portions
of the northern Gulf Coast on Fri. Please consult products from
your local meteorological service for more information. This area
has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hrs
and five days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook issued by the NWS National Hurricane Center at website:
www.hurricanes.gov for more details on this area.
A tropical wave is analyzed near 30W from 17N southward, moving W
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to
10N between 30W and 37W.
A tropical wave is analyzed near 52W from 19N southward, moving W
at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to
16N between 51W and 53W.
A tropical wave is analyzed near 76W from 18N southward across
western Colombia. No significant convection is noted over water,
however scattered thunderstorms near the tropical wave axis are
occurring over portions of western Colombia.
A tropical wave is analyzed across southern Mexico near 94W
southward into the eastern Pacific Ocean, moving W at around 15
kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
across the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and Guatemala, with a band
of scattered moderate convection from 12N to 18N between 82W and
88W including over eastern Honduras and Nicaragua. Frequent
lightning is occurring in these areas of deep convection.
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 12N16W
to 11N18W. The ITCZ continues from 11N18W to 08N28W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave from 06N32W to 01N40W to 02N46W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 07W and 24W,
and from 10N to 13N between 53W and 58W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a broad
low pressure area over the Bay of Campeche.
Otherwise, a weak ridge of high pressure dominates the basin
extending from near Fort Myers, Florida to the central Texas
coast. A surface trough is analyzed just inland along the U.S.
northern Gulf coast states. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from the Yucatan Channel to 26N between 82W
and 90W. Additional deep convection is noted over southern Mexico
and the Yucatan Peninsula as described above in the Tropical Waves
section. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are occurring from 20N to
25N between 84W and 90W, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic
winds noted elsewhere. Seas are mainly 3 ft or less, except 3 to 5
ft in the area of moderate to fresh winds.
For the forecast, other than the broad area of low pressure, high
pressure ridging should build across the basin along 27N late in
the upcoming weekend into early next week.
A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Refer to
the Tropical Waves section above for details.
An overnight scatterometer pass showed a large area of fresh to
strong SE winds in the NW Caribbean where seas are 4 to 7 ft. Deep
convection is occurring near this area as well as described in the
Tropical Waves section above. The scatterometer pass data also
indicated fresh to strong winds in the S central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh trades were noted elsewhere, except light to
gentle in the SW Caribbean south of 11N. Seas are mainly in the 4
to 7 ft range across the basin, except locally to 8 ft in the S
central Caribbean, and 2 to 4 ft in the SW Caribbean.
For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure north of the basin
combined with lower pressure over Central America and Colombia
will support pulsing fresh to strong trades over the S central
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through the upcoming weekend.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except light to
gentle south of 11N.
A pair of tropical waves are moving westward between the west
coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Tropical
Waves section above for details.
A ridge dominates the entire Atlantic forecast area anchored by
the Bermuda-Azores High located north of the area near 35N39W at
1028 mb. The ridge extends to across Bermuda and to South Florida,
continuing across the central Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong SW
winds are occurring north of 28N between 68W and 81W where
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring,
supported by a mid-level trough. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in this area
of fresh to strong winds. Moderate to fresh trades dominate south
of 22N, locally strong near 17N38W, with gentle to moderate
trades elsewhere. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate the waters elsewhere
west of 40W, with mainly 5 to 8 ft seas east of 40W. An exception
is from 20N to 26N, just south of the Canary Islands, between the
west coast of Africa and 30W where fresh to locally strong N-NE
winds persists due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Seas are
6 to 9 ft in this area.
For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge of high pressure across the
area will prevail across 26N through mid-week before retreating
eastward through the end of the week. Winds will be fresh to
strong north of 28N through mid-week as a pair of cold fronts pass
north of the area.