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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    433
    AXNT20 KNHC 010000
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Fri Mar 01 2024

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2345 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning:
    Fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean as noted
    in a scatterometer satellite data pass over that part of the
    Caribbean. The tight pressure gradient between high pressure over
    the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northwestern
    Colombia will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds across
    the south- central Caribbean into early next week. These winds
    will pulse to gale- force off the northwestern Colombia coast
    during the nighttime and early morning hours from tonight through
    early Sat morning. Seas near and just downwind of these strongest
    winds are expected to reach 12 ft each early morning.

    Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
    Hurricane Center at website
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional
    information.

    Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Very strong high pressure of 1042
    mb is well north of the area over the northern Atlantic just
    northwest of the Azores near 41N33W. A tight pressure gradient
    between this high and a broad surface trough across northwestern
    Africa is resulting in gale-force winds in the Meteo-France
    Marine Zone Agadir, near the Morocco coast. These winds are
    forecast to persist through at least Fri morning.

    Please read the latest High Seas Warning issued by Meteo-France at
    website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for
    more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the Guinea-
    Sierra Leone border near 08N12W and extends southwestward to
    01N25W and to 01N33W, where latest scatterometer data indicates
    the ITCZ begins and continues to 01N38W and to near 00N48W.
    Large clusters of numerous strong convection are noted southeast
    of the trough east of 17W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
    convection is within 120 nm either side of the trough between
    24W-27W and within 60 nm north of the trough between 29W-33W.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front extends from central Florida to 27N88W and
    to 26N91W, where it transitions to a warm front to low pressure
    near 26N95W 1017 mb. A cold front extends from the low to near
    20N97W. Overcast multilayer clouds with embedded areas of rain
    and scattered showers are north of the frontal boundary and low
    pressure west of about 90W. The pressure gradient between the
    front and strong high pressure to the north supports fresh to
    strong winds over the northern Gulf, where seas are in the 5 to 7
    ft range. The remainder of the Gulf is dominated by a weak high
    pressure ridge that stretches west-southwestward from South
    Florida to the central Gulf. The associated gradient is allowing
    for moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and seas of 3 to 5
    ft over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds and
    seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

    For the forecast, the weak low pressure in the western Gulf will
    move northeast out of the north-central Gulf Fri. In response,
    the eastern part of the front will retreat northward as a warm
    front, while the western portion will remain generally stationary
    into the weekend. The boundary will then dissipate over northern
    waters Sun. Strong northeast to east winds are expected north
    of the low pressure through tonight. Over the weekend, high
    pressure centered in the western Atlantic will build weakly into
    the basin, bringing fairly tranquil conditions to the basin for
    the start of next week.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please see the Special Features section for details about a
    gale warning for waters near the coast of Colombia.

    High pressure is north of the basin over the western Atlantic.
    Fresh to strong trade winds are over the central Caribbean,
    outside the gale warning area, south of 16N between 70W and 78W.
    Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are over the eastern
    Caribbean. Fresh to strong northeast winds are the northern
    Windward Passage. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes show
    gentle to moderate northeast to east winds over the northwestern
    Caribbean. Moderate to fresh east winds are over the Gulf of
    Honduras. Seas are 3 to 4 ft over the northwestern Caribbean,
    except in the Gulf of Honduras where seas are 4 to 6 ft. The
    highest seas of 8 to 12 ft are near the coast of Colombia, 6 to 8
    ft dominate the remainder of the central Caribbean while seas of
    4 to 6 ft are over the eastern Caribbean. Patches of low-level
    moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow are over portions of
    the basin. Isolated showers are possible with these patches of
    moisture.

    For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the region
    will build southward and strengthen into Sun, causing fresh to
    strong trades in the south-central Caribbean and Windward Passage
    to expand and dominate much of the central and eastern basin.
    Northeast to wast winds will pulse to gale- force nightly
    offshore Colombia through Fri night. Winds and seas will begin to
    gradually diminish over the eastern Caribbean Sun through Mon as
    Atlantic high pressure retreats to the northeast.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please read the Special Features section about a gale warning
    in the eastern Atlantic.

    A cold front is analyzed from near 31N72W southwestward to inland
    Florida near Fort Pierce. Fresh to strong northeast to east
    winds are north of the front along with seas of 6-9 ft. To the
    southeast of the front, high pressure of 1025 mb is analyzed near
    28N68W. A broad and rather weak ridge extends from the high to
    South Florida and the Greater Antilles. The gradient associated
    to the ridge is allowing for generally light and variable winds
    near it. Moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds are
    along the southern periphery of the ridge, especially to the
    south of 22N and west of 60W where seas are in the 4 to 6 ft
    range. A 1016 mb low is analyzed at 28N58W, with a trough
    extending south-southwest to 20N59W. An area of numerous showers
    and thunderstorms with observed frequent lightning is to the east
    of the trough from 22N to 29N and between 51W-55W. The low is
    being supported by a mid to upper- level low as seen on water
    vapor imagery near 27N57W. The low is appearing to cut-off from
    the upper flow pattern. It is dropping south-southeastward. The
    remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is dominated by strong
    high pressure of 1042 mb centered just to the northwest of the
    Azores. Outside of the gale force winds in the far eastern
    Atlantic, fresh to strong NE winds prevail north of 22N and east
    of 45W where seas are 9 to 12 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
    trade winds along with seas of 4 to 7 ft are present over the
    tropical Atlantic.

    For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough that extends from
    the 1016 mb low near 28N58W will drift eastward through the weekend,
    with some weak low pressure centers possibly developing along it
    at times, inducing some fresh to locally strong N winds the west
    of the trough axis. The 1025 mb high center near 28N68W will
    continue shifting south and east tonight allowing for the
    cold front that is over the northwest forecast waters to move
    eastward over the northernmost waters. This front will move
    across the waters north of 28N through Fri, with some strong
    northeast to east winds behind it. Winds and seas will diminish
    beginning next week.

    $$
    Aguirre/Mora