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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook
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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs
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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs
Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion
AXNT20 KNHC 221019
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Sep 22 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Beta has moved inland early this morning and is
centered near 28.8N 96.7W at 22/0900 UTC or 30 nm NNW of Port
Oconnor Texas moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends out 150 nm
from the center in the E semicircle. Beta is expected to stall
today and tonight, while gradually weakening to a tropical
depression. Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings remain in
effect for portions of the NW Gulf Coast. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
Hurricane Teddy is centered near 38.4N 62.4W at 22/0900 UTC or
380 nm S of Halifax Nova Scotia moving NNW at 24 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection extends outward 360 nm from the center in the northern
semicircle...and 90 nm in the SW quadrant. Teddy will move over
Nova Scotia Wed morning then cross the Gulf of St. Lawrence
through Wed night. Teddy should weaken below hurricane strength
and become extratropical on Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the
Forecast Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.
Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 34.7N 23.7W at 22/0900
UTC or 260 nm SE of the Azores moving ENE at 15 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within about 60 nm of the center in all quadrants.
Paulette will continue moving ENE into Wed before stalling Wed
night. Weakening is forecast and Paulette is likely to become
post-tropical Wed or Tue. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the
Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml
for more details.
A tropical wave is located along 20W S of 17N, moving W at 10 to
15 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave.
A weak tropical wave extends along 32W S of 18N, moving W at 10 to
15 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave.
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 12N16W
to 08N28W. The ITCZ is from 06N33W to 05N39W. No significant
convection is occurring along these features.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for further details
on Tropical Storm Beta inland over Texas.
As of 22/0900 UTC. A cold front has now stalled over the eastern
and central Gulf from 22N81W to 29N92W. Scattered moderate
convection is near the front. North of the front over the NE Gulf,
strong NE winds prevail. These winds will gradually decrease
to fresh later today and tonight. Gentle winds prevail over the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico south of the front. In the far
western Gulf, gentle winds prevail south of 25.5N.
After weakening to a tropical depression later today or tonight,
Beta will turn NE and track along the TX coast for the next
several days, eventually moving into Louisiana. Impacts from Beta
will remain confined to nearshore coastal waters of Texas and
Louisiana. A stationary front will remain stretched from the
central to southeast Gulf through Thu. Low pressure may form along
this frontal boundary in the southeast Gulf later this week.
Mainly fair weather conditions prevail across the basin under the
influence of mid level high pressure supporting dry air
subsidence. Showers and thunderstorms previously near Cuba have
dissipated. Scattered moderate convection S of 11N, along the
Panama and Colombia coasts, is associated with the east Pacific
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail.
Swell associated with Hurricane Teddy moving away in the north
Atlantic as well as generated by a cold front currently extending
along 22N W of 61W will impact much of the Atlantic passages
beginning Tue night and continuing through at least Thu night.
Mainly gentle to moderate trade winds will dominate the basin
through Thu night. Across the remainder of the Caribbean, gentle
to moderate trades will prevail.
A cold front extends from 31N61W to 22N77W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is along the front. Strong NE winds
area located to the N and W of the front, including the Bahamas.
Ahead of the front, strong S winds are occurring N of 28N. A
weak 1010 mb low near 14N50W is along a NE-SW surface trough that
extends from 17N46W to 10N54W. Another surface trough is from
22N40W to 16N41W. A broad area of moderate, disorganized
convection resides in the vicinity of these features from 11N to
24N between 39N and 49W.
Swell generated by Hurricane Teddy, moving farther north of the
area toward Atlantic Canada, and a cold front that is slowing
over the southeastern waters will continue to impact the waters
through at least Thu night. In the wake of the front, high
pressure building into the Mid- Atlantic U.S. will bring fresh to
strong winds to areas N of the Bahamas and off the Florida coast