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NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

• NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
  000<br />AXNT20 KNHC 152242<br />TWDAT <br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />0015 UTC Thu Jan 16 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />2230 UTC.<br /><br />...SPECIAL FEATURES...<br /><br />Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Another round of significant NW<br />swell is already entering the western Atlantic mainly N of 30N<br />between 60W and 70W in the vicinity of a cold front currently N <br />of the area. Fresh to strong NW winds are occurring behind the <br />front. The swell will continue to impact the waters N of 27N <br />between 55W and 75W this evening, with waves of 12-14 ft, then <br />spread eastward to affect waters N of 26N between 50W and 70W <br />Thursday through early Friday, with wave heights of 12-18 ft. Seas<br />will then subside on Friday.<br /><br />Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the <br />National Hurricane Center at the website: <br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.<br /><br />...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <br /><br />The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 10N14W and <br />extends southwestward to 02N18W. The ITCZ extends from 02N18W to <br />02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within <br />300 nm of the ITCZ.<br /><br />...GULF OF MEXICO...<br /><br />A surface trough is over the western Gulf along 95W, with ridging<br />extending across the remainder of the central and eastern Gulf. <br />Fresh to strong E winds prevail across the NW Gulf waters N of <br />22N and W of 90W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are elsewhere E of <br />the surface trough. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range across the <br />basin. <br /><br />For the forecast, the surface trough will linger over the western<br />part of the basin into Thu night. Fresh to strong N winds will <br />prevail N and W of the trough into Thu evening, with moderate to <br />fresh SE winds E of the trough to 87W tonight. Fresh to locally <br />strong winds will dominate the basin by the end of the week, ahead<br />of a cold front forecast to reach from SW Louisiana to lower <br />Texas early Sat, then from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the SW Gulf <br />early Sun, pushing SE of the basin Sun night. Fresh to strong N <br />winds and building seas may follow the front into next week.<br /><br />...CARIBBEAN SEA...<br /><br />Fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail over the central and SW <br />Caribbean, as well as in the lee of Cuba, and through the northern<br />Caribbean Passages. Moderate to fresh trades are noted elsewhere.<br />Seas are in the 8-9 ft range over the central and SW Caribbean, <br />and 4-7 ft over the north central and eastern Caribbean. Over the<br />NW Caribbean, seas of 3-5 ft are noted. <br /><br />For the forecast, high pressure building across the western <br />Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the <br />central Caribbean, with strong winds pulsing off Colombia, <br />Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba at times through at least Fri night. <br />High pressure in the wake of a stalling and dissipating front <br />mainly north of the area will build across the entire basin early <br />next week with fresh to locally strong winds. Long-period <br />northerly swells will impact Atlantic passages through the end of <br />the week. Fresh to strong trades may develop in the Tropical N <br />Atlantic this weekend into early next week, gradually building <br />seas.<br /><br />...ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br /><br />Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on<br />the significant swell in the Atlantic.<br /><br />A cold front extends from 31N54W to the southern Bahamas. Fresh <br />to strong NW winds are occurring along and behind the front, while<br />moderate to fresh are noted E of the front. To the E, an area of<br />fresh NE winds prevails near the Canary Islands. Seas are in the <br />8-12 ft range N of 07N between 19W and 55W. Elsewhere, seas of 4-7<br />ft prevail. <br /><br />For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will stall and weaken <br />over the far SE waters by Thu night. Fresh to strong winds mainly <br />behind the front will impact the waters north of 29N. Large, long-<br />period NW to N swell north of 27N and east of 75W associated with<br />the front will shift to the east of 55W by Fri night. Another <br />cold front will move across the basin Thu night into early Sat, <br />with new large swell mainly north of 27N, along with fresh to <br />strong winds. Another front may impact the waters off northern <br />Florida this weekend with increasing winds and seas on either side<br />of it. The front should stall and weaken over the central waters <br />early next week.<br /><br />$$<br />ERA