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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 252118
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Wed Nov 25 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2030 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis passes through the northern coastal
    sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N24W. The ITCZ axis continues
    from 05N24W to 06N38W to the coast of far NW Brazil near 04N51W.
    Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
    04N-09N between 13W-17W, from 04N-07N between 35W-40W, from 09N-
    12N between 35W-40W, and from 07N-10N between 57W-61W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front extends from along the southern Mississippi River to
    near Shreveport, Louisiana to near Baffin Bay, Texas. A
    prefrontal squall line is noted on radar from near New Orleans,
    Louisiana to across south-central Louisiana into the southwest
    Louisiana coastal waters. Scattered moderate to strong convection
    is within 30 nm of the squall line. Elsewhere, scattered showers
    are over South Florida and the southeastern Gulf, extending
    northwest to the northeastern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE
    return flow prevails across the basin late this afternoon, except
    shifting moderate northerly winds behind the cold front.

    High pressure over the eastern Gulf will gradually shift eastward
    as a the cold front moves east-southeast the northern Gulf waters
    tonight. The front will stall and lift northward on Thu. A weak
    cold front may move into the north-central and northeast Gulf
    coastal waters Fri night, stalling through Sat. A strong cold
    front will move into the northwest Gulf waters Sun morning
    returning fresh to strong northerly winds across the basin behind
    it. The front is forecast to shift southeast of the basin Mon
    night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Scattered moderate convection is along the coast and just offshore
    from Colombia to Panama northward to Honduras. Elsewhere,
    scattered showers are over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
    Hispaniola mostly due to the now dissipated tail end of a cold
    front over the W Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE-E flow is noted
    south of Hispaniola to 15N, northwest of the coast of Colombia,
    and across the Windward Passage due to building high pressure
    north of the area and lower pressure over northern Colombia and
    the southwest Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh trades prevail
    elsewhere. Seas are 6-8 ft across the areas of fresh to strong
    winds, and mainly 4-6 ft elsewhere.

    The fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean will persist
    through Thu. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across
    most of the area Thu night into early next week. Looking ahead, a
    cold front may move southeast of the Yucatan Channel into the
    northwest Caribbean Mon through Mon night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends from 32N55W to a 1016 mb low pressure area
    near 31N56W to another low pressure area 1015 mb near 26N59W to
    north of the Virgin Islands near 21N64W. Scattered moderate and
    isolated strong convection is noted north of 21N between 47W-57W.
    A 1036 mb high is centered well north of the area southeast of
    Nova Scotia near 44N59W. This high extends a ridge southwestward
    to across the Florida Peninsula. Fresh to strong winds are noted
    west of the front to 65W due to a tight pressure gradient between
    the ridging and low pressure areas along the front. Moderate to
    fresh winds prevail elsewhere under the ridge and behind the
    front. Seas are 8-13 ft across the area of fresh to strong winds,
    and 6-10 ft elsewhere west of the front, except 3 ft or less west
    of the Bahamas. A 1034 mb high is centered over the Azores near
    38N31W. This high and attendant ridging dominates the remainder of
    the waters north of the ITCZ and east of the cold front.

    The cold front over the central Atlantic will shift slowly
    eastward this evening, then become stationary by Thu. The fresh to
    strong winds just west of the front will prevail through Thu. The
    large seas in northerly swell behind the front is expected to
    continue to impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages
    through Fri. The stalled out front will linger into the weekend,
    becoming a remnant trough. A weak backdoor cold front may drop
    south of 31N late Sat night into Sun, stalling and dissipating
    along 27N by Sun evening. A stronger cold front will move into the
    waters off the southeast U.S. coast Mon through early next week.

    $$
    Lewitsky