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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook
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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs
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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs
Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion
AXNT20 KNHC 031049
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
649 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A tropical wave is just offshore of western Africa, along
18W/19W, from 21N southward, moving west at 15-20 knots.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03.5N to 11.5N between
20W and the west coast of Africa.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, southward of 18N,
moving west at 15 knots. Precipitation: the wave is moving
through the area of nearby ITCZ precipitation. Saharan air is
noted ahead and N of 15N across the wave axis and is producing low
level stratocumulus. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
06.5N to 12N between 30W and 37W.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W from 17N southward,
moving west at 20 knots. This wave has been accompanied by
Saharan air and diminishing dust to the south of 14N. Small
clusters of moderate convection are noted well ahead and well
behind the wave axis across portions of coastal Venezuela.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 20 to 25 knots. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted south of 13N between 76W and 81W and
extend southward to 06N across the eastern Pacific.
A tropical wave across the eastern Pacific along 93W/94W extends
northward across southern Mexico to the central Bay of Campeche
along 20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is interacting with a
middle to upper level trough from the central Gulf to interior
Mexico west of Veracruz. Associated convection is noted across
southern Mexico and the adjacent eastern Pacific waters.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea-Bissau, near 12N16W, to 07N36W. The ITCZ is along 06N40W,
to 05N47W to 06N56W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
noted within 240 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 23W
and 33W, and within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 40W and 50W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
An middle to upper level trough extends from central Florida
coast, southwestward, across the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico
and into south central Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
covers the rest of the area, mostly in the NW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection extends across the SE
Gulf from 22.5N to 25N between 90W and the Florida Keys. A few
clusters of moderate convection are moving southeastward across
the Florida Big Bend waters.
A 1016 mb high pressure is centered near 27N91W and is
producing anticyclonic flow across the basin. Weak low level
troughing extending east to west across the Florida Panhandle is
helping to maintain moderate westerly winds across the NE Gulf to
the mouth of the Mississippi River. This pattern will prevail
through Mon to yield generally fair to benign marine conditions.
However, expect fresh SE winds at times in the SW Gulf of Mexico
early next week. W to NW winds across the northeast Gulf waters
will also yield periods of active weather.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W moving westward 20
knots. This wave remains surrounded by Saharan air. A second
tropical wave is along 78W moving westward 20 to 25 kt.
A ridge extends from a central Atlantic Ocean high pressure
center, WSW to the NW Bahamas. The ridge will maintain fresh to
occasionally strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea
into Wednesday. Pulses of fresh to locally strong winds also are
possible early next week in the Gulf of Honduras.
An upper level trough extends from a 27N53W cyclonic circulation
center, southwestward, to the eastern Caribbean Sea, and the
67W/68W tropical wave.
A stationary front extends from coastal Georgia along 32N, with
moderate to fresh SW winds S of the boundary from NE Florida to W
A high pressure center is in the central Atlantic Ocean. A ridge
extends WSW, from the center, to the NW Bahamas. The ridge will
persist through early next week. Low pressure offshore of Cape
Hatteras will move eastward Sunday and maintain SW winds across
the NW offshore waters. Expect rainshowers and thunderstorms with
gusty winds, to the areas that are to the north of 27N.
Mostly sunny and uncomfortably warm temperatures are expected
across South Florida the remainder of this week under the
influence of a ridge. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast in the afternoon and early evening