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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    AXNT20 KNHC 222108

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Sat Sep 23 2023

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2100 UTC.


    Tropical Storm Ophelia is centered near 32.9N 76.3W at 22/2100
    UTC or 100 nm SE of Cape Fear North Carolina, moving NNW at 11
    kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum
    sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered
    moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm in
    the W quadrant of Ophelia. Peak seas are currently around 23 ft SE
    of Cape Fear, North Carolina, per the Ocean Prediction Center
    based on nearby observations from NDBC buoys. On the forecast
    track, the center of Ophelia will approach the coast of North
    Carolina tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina,
    southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and
    Sunday. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall
    along the coast of North Carolina. Weakening is expected after
    landfall through the rest of the weekend. Swells generated by
    this system will affect much of the U.S. east coast through the
    weekend, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip currents.
    Heavy rainfall from this system could produce locally considerable
    flash, and urban flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-
    Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through Sunday.
    Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
    Hurricane Center at website -
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
    Ophelia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
    www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

    Invest 90L in the Central Tropical Atlantic: The axis of a
    tropical wave is analyzed along 35W with a 1009 mb low centered
    at 14N35W, or several hundred nautical miles west of the Cabo
    Verde Islands. Maximum winds are currently 25 kt and peak seas
    are up to 10-11 ft. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated
    with this area of low pressure has decreased slightly over the
    last few hours, however, further development is still expected.
    Scattered moderate convection is noted within about 420 nm in the
    NW semicircle of the low. A tropical depression is likely to
    form during the next couple of days while the system moves
    generally westward at 10 to 15 kt. The system is then expected to
    turn west-northwestward early next week as it moves over the
    central tropical Atlantic. The formation chance through 48 hours
    is high. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
    www.hurricanes.gov for more information.


    Please see the Special Features Section for details on the
    tropical wave (Invest 90L) along 35W.

    A tropical N Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W, south
    of 22N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 56W and 64W, including
    over inland portions of NE South America.


    The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
    Senegal near 14N17W and continues westward to the aforementioned
    low pressure near 14N35W, before terminating near 09N47W. No ITCZ
    is evident in the tropical Atlantic at this time. Scattered
    moderate convection is noted from 12N to 19N between 43W and 47W.


    A weak surface trough is analyzed from 26N90W to 23N85W. Scattered
    showers and thunderstorms are noted between 60 nm and 180 nm NE of
    the trough. Moderate NE-E winds and 3-4 ft seas are NE of the
    trough. Otherwise, weak high pressure over the lower Mississippi
    Valley is supporting only light to gentle NE to E breezes and
    slight seas across the remainder of the basin this afternoon,
    along with 1-3 ft seas.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure over the lower Mississippi
    Valley extending across the northern Gulf will control the weather
    pattern across basin through early next week. This will support
    mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas, except for
    moderate winds pulsing to fresh winds offshore the western Yucatan
    Peninsula in the evenings.


    Weak surface ridging north of the Caribbean is forcing only
    gentle trades N of a line from the SW tip of Haiti to central
    Jamaica to the border of Nicaragua and Honduras, where seas are
    mainly 2-3 ft. Moderate to fresh trades prevail SE of there,
    highest in the central Caribbean with the pressure gradient is
    relatively tight, along with 3-6 ft seas, locally 7 ft near
    11.5N76.5W. No deep convection is noted today over the Caribbean.

    For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds in the central
    Caribbean will change little through Sat. Winds across central
    portions will increase modestly Sun through Mon as high pressure
    strengthens across the region. Fresh to strong trade winds will
    pulse offshore of northern Colombia and northwest Venezuela during
    mainly the overnight and early morning hours into early next
    week. Looking ahead, seas will build in mixed NE and E swell
    across waters east of the Leeward Islands starting early Mon,
    ahead of low pressure moving westward across the tropical
    Atlantic, possibly as the next tropical cyclone.


    Please see the Special Features section section above for
    information on Tropical Storm Ophelia and Invest 90L.

    A mid-level trough extends from 31N73W to near Key Largo, Florida.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 120 nm SE of
    this feature, with similar activity from 22N to 27N between 67W
    and 72W. A weak surface trough is analyzed from 31N28.5W to
    29.5N35W to 30N40W with a parent front just N of 31N. Elsewhere,
    ridging extends across the Atlantic along roughly 30N/31N. Between
    the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ, the trades are gentle to
    moderate with seas 5-8 ft. Winds and seas are higher in the
    vicinity of Ophelia extending S into our area to 29N, and also
    near Invest 90L. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection
    is noted from 19N to 28N between 45W and 59W in association with
    an upper-level trough.

    For the forecast west of 55W, Ophelia will move further northward and
    inland across coastal North Carolina on Sat. Large northerly swell
    will move through the waters W of 70W tonight through early Sun
    before fading. A weak ridge will build in the wake of Ophelia off
    Florida through early next week, although a trough will persist
    across the Bahamas through Mon. Looking ahead, seas will build in
    mixed NE and E swell across waters northeast of the Leeward
    Islands starting Mon, ahead of low pressure moving westward across
    the tropical Atlantic, possibly as the next tropical cyclone.