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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    505
    AXNT20 KNHC 251718
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Sat Mar 25 2023

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between an Atlantic high
    pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to
    induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing
    to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through
    Tue night. Seas are forecast to peak around 10-12 ft each morning
    in the vicinity of 12N76W.

    Atlantic large swell event: A storm force low over the N Atlantic
    has generated a large long-period NW swell. The associated cold
    front is expected to propagate into the waters E of 55W tonight.
    Seas of 12 to 14 ft will propagate into the northern waters in
    the wake of the front, N of 30N between 40W and 50W tonight. Seas
    will peak near 16 ft over the waters N of 30N between 35W and 50W
    Sun night. The swell will propagate southeastward, reaching as
    far south as 25N early Mon before subsiding. Seas over the
    discussion waters associated to this swell will subside below 12
    ft Tue.

    Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
    Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
    Leone near 07N12W to 00N29W. The ITCZ continues from 00N29W to
    02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N
    and E of 28W. Scattered showers are noted within 100 nm N of the
    ITCZ mainly W of 35W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf waters. A cold front has
    entered the NW Gulf area, extending along the Texas coastline. A
    pre frontal trough is analyzed from 28N94W to 27N96W. Fresh to
    strong winds are noted N of the Yucatan peninsula as well as off
    Veracruz, Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere.
    Seas are in the 5-7 ft range N of the Yucatan peninsula, 4-6 ft W
    of 90W, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

    For the forecast, the surface ridge extending will slowly shift
    southward through late Mon. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off
    the Yucatan peninsula during the evening hours through the period.
    The cold front along the NW corner of the basin will move farther
    southeastward before dissipating tonight. Another cold front will
    enter the NW Gulf late Mon night and move slowly southeastward.
    This front will reach from central Florida to NE Mexico by late
    Tue, and from the southeastern Gulf to the Bay of Campeche by late
    Wed. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will follow behind
    the front. Fresh east to southeast winds develop in the NW Gulf
    on Wed.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
    Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

    Strong to near-gale NE winds are noted within 90 nm of the coast
    of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are noted elsewhere over the
    central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds
    prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are
    elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range over the south central
    Caribbean. Elsewhere, seas of 4-6 ft prevail, except in the lee of
    Cuba where seas are in the 3-4 ft range, and 6-7 ft over the Gulf
    of Honduras.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge
    and lower pressure over Colombia will support strong winds over the
    south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to gale-force winds at night
    near the coast of Colombia through Tue night. Winds will pulse to
    strong in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through
    the weekend. Strong trade winds will prevail over the Gulf of
    Honduras into early next week. Fresh trade winds will prevail
    elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean through the
    period.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Refer to the section above for details on the significant swell
    event expected to begin tonight.

    High pressure of 1023 mb is centered near 30N62W. Light to gentle
    winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh
    winds are found off the coast of northern Florida. Gentle to
    moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas in the 8-10 ft range are
    noted N of 25N between 30W and 45W. Elsewhere, seas of 5-7 ft
    prevail, except 4-5 ft in the vicinity of the high center.

    For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the
    area through the weekend, then shift slightly southward next week
    as a cold front moves across the waters north of the Bahamas.
    Fresh to strong winds will be in the vicinity of the cold front
    along with building seas. Winds are expected to reach near gale-
    force on either side of the front north of 29N the middle of next
    week as the front reaches from near 31N60W across central Bahamas
    to east-central Cuba.

    $$
    ERA