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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 161202
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Wed Jun 16 2021

    Updated to include the latest Tropical Weather Outlook

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0750 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of
    Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low
    pressure area. Fresh to strong NW-N winds are noted within 60 nm
    of the coast of Veracruz where seas are 3 to 5 ft. This system
    will move little during the next day or so, and little if any
    development is expected during that time due to interaction with
    land. However, the broad disturbance should begin to move
    northward on Thu, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
    late Thu or on Fri when the low moves across the western Gulf of
    Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue
    over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the
    next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to affect portions
    of the northern Gulf Coast on Fri. Please consult products from
    your local meteorological service for more information. This area
    has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hrs
    and five days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather
    Outlook issued by the NWS National Hurricane Center at website:
    www.hurricanes.gov for more details on this area.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is analyzed near 30W from 17N southward, moving W
    at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to
    10N between 30W and 37W.

    A tropical wave is analyzed near 52W from 19N southward, moving W
    at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to
    16N between 51W and 53W.

    A tropical wave is analyzed near 76W from 18N southward across
    western Colombia. No significant convection is noted over water,
    however scattered thunderstorms near the tropical wave axis are
    occurring over portions of western Colombia.

    A tropical wave is analyzed across southern Mexico near 94W
    southward into the eastern Pacific Ocean, moving W at around 15
    kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
    across the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and Guatemala, with a band
    of scattered moderate convection from 12N to 18N between 82W and
    88W including over eastern Honduras and Nicaragua. Frequent
    lightning is occurring in these areas of deep convection.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 12N16W
    to 11N18W. The ITCZ continues from 11N18W to 08N28W, then resumes
    west of a tropical wave from 06N32W to 01N40W to 02N46W. Scattered
    moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 07W and 24W,
    and from 10N to 13N between 53W and 58W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a broad
    low pressure area over the Bay of Campeche.

    Otherwise, a weak ridge of high pressure dominates the basin
    extending from near Fort Myers, Florida to the central Texas
    coast. A surface trough is analyzed just inland along the U.S.
    northern Gulf coast states. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
    convection is noted from the Yucatan Channel to 26N between 82W
    and 90W. Additional deep convection is noted over southern Mexico
    and the Yucatan Peninsula as described above in the Tropical Waves
    section. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are occurring from 20N to
    25N between 84W and 90W, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic
    winds noted elsewhere. Seas are mainly 3 ft or less, except 3 to 5
    ft in the area of moderate to fresh winds.

    For the forecast, other than the broad area of low pressure, high
    pressure ridging should build across the basin along 27N late in
    the upcoming weekend into early next week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Refer to
    the Tropical Waves section above for details.

    An overnight scatterometer pass showed a large area of fresh to
    strong SE winds in the NW Caribbean where seas are 4 to 7 ft. Deep
    convection is occurring near this area as well as described in the
    Tropical Waves section above. The scatterometer pass data also
    indicated fresh to strong winds in the S central Caribbean.
    Moderate to fresh trades were noted elsewhere, except light to
    gentle in the SW Caribbean south of 11N. Seas are mainly in the 4
    to 7 ft range across the basin, except locally to 8 ft in the S
    central Caribbean, and 2 to 4 ft in the SW Caribbean.

    For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure north of the basin
    combined with lower pressure over Central America and Colombia
    will support pulsing fresh to strong trades over the S central
    Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through the upcoming weekend.
    Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except light to
    gentle south of 11N.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A pair of tropical waves are moving westward between the west
    coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Tropical
    Waves section above for details.

    A ridge dominates the entire Atlantic forecast area anchored by
    the Bermuda-Azores High located north of the area near 35N39W at
    1028 mb. The ridge extends to across Bermuda and to South Florida,
    continuing across the central Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong SW
    winds are occurring north of 28N between 68W and 81W where
    scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring,
    supported by a mid-level trough. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in this area
    of fresh to strong winds. Moderate to fresh trades dominate south
    of 22N, locally strong near 17N38W, with gentle to moderate
    trades elsewhere. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate the waters elsewhere
    west of 40W, with mainly 5 to 8 ft seas east of 40W. An exception
    is from 20N to 26N, just south of the Canary Islands, between the
    west coast of Africa and 30W where fresh to locally strong N-NE
    winds persists due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Seas are
    6 to 9 ft in this area.

    For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge of high pressure across the
    area will prevail across 26N through mid-week before retreating
    eastward through the end of the week. Winds will be fresh to
    strong north of 28N through mid-week as a pair of cold fronts pass
    north of the area.

    $$
    Mahoney