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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 160457
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0605 UTC Sun Jan 16 2022

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0455 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 0300 UTC, a strong cold front
    extends from Pensacola, Florida to near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. A
    line of showers and thunderstorms is found ahead of the front,
    mainly north of 23N. Surface observations and recent scatterometer
    satellite data show strong to gale-force NW winds behind the cold
    front, with the strongest winds occurring in the NW and SW Gulf.
    Seas of 8-18 ft are also present behind the front. A buoy located
    a couple hundred miles east of Brownsville, Texas, reported wave
    heights of 16.7 ft. The frontal boundary is moving quickly across
    the Gulf of Mexico and will continue SE across the rest of the
    basin through late this afternoon. Conditions will improve on Mon
    as high pressure builds over the region.

    Atlantic Gale Warning: The previously-mentioned cold front will
    emerge off the Florida coast later this morning. Strong south
    winds will begin to impact the northwest offshore waters early
    this morning, with winds increasing to gale-force this morning.
    Near-gale to gale force winds behind the cold front will affect
    the waters north of about 27N through Mon afternoon. Seas greater
    than 12 ft will impact the region through Mon afternoon.
    Conditions will gradually improve late Mon into Tue morning.

    Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
    National Hurricane Center at website
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
    the three warnings.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
    05N08W to near 02N15W. The ITCZ then continues from 02N15W to
    00N30W to 02S45W. A few showers are noted off the coast of Africa,
    mainly from 00N to 06N and E of 13W.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    Please see the Special Features section above for details on
    a Gale Warning.

    Outside of the aforementioned cold front, the weather conditions
    are tranquil in the SE Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate
    to fresh winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted ahead of the frontal
    boundary.

    For the forecast, the front is forecast to move east of the basin
    Sun afternoon, however trailing fresh to strong winds and rough
    seas in the eastern Gulf will gradually diminish through Mon
    morning. Aside from the hazardous conditions described above,
    scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front.
    Conditions are forecast to improve on Mon as high pressure builds
    over the region.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Tranquil weather conditions prevail across the Caribbean Sea. A
    few shallow showers are noted near the Lesser Antilles and the
    coast of Nicaragua due to pockets of low-level moisture moving
    westward with the trades. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
    show fresh to strong trades off NW Colombia, while moderate to
    locally fresh trades are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf
    of Honduras. Moderate or weaker winds are present elsewhere in the
    basin. Seas of 3-5 ft are occurring in the south-central Caribbean
    and Gulf of Honduras and 2-4 ft in the remainder of the Caribbean.

    For the forecast, fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean will
    increase to locally strong at night along Colombia and in the
    Gulf of Venezuela through Thu night. Winds in the eastern and
    central Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh tonight and
    continue through Thu night. Otherwise, a cold front is forecast to
    enter the NW Caribbean on Sun morning followed by fresh to strong
    NW winds and building seas. The front will extend from central
    Cuba to NE Honduras by Mon morning where it will start to weaken
    before dissipating Mon night.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
    Gale Warning for portions of the southwest Atlantic.

    A cold front extends from 31N50W to 23N61W, where it transitions
    into a stationary front to Hispaniola. Scattered moderate to
    isolated strong convection is noted ahead of the frontal boundary,
    mainly north of 22N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict
    fresh SW winds in association with the convection. Behind the cold
    front, a 1019 mb high pressure dominate the western tropical
    Atlantic, resulting in fairly tranquil weather conditions. Seas of
    8-15 ft are present north of 22N and between 49W and 77W, with
    seas greater than 12 ft being found north of 27N and between 54W
    and 70W.

    Farther east, a 1010 mb low pressure system located near 29N27W
    continues to produce an area of showers and thunderstorms, but the
    convection is mainly north of 30N and between 23W and 27W. A
    stationary front reaches the low pressure from the northeast,
    while a trough extends from the low pressure to 19N30W. Latest
    satellite-derived wind data indicate that strong to near gale-
    force winds are occurring north of 27N and between the low
    pressure and 34W. Seas of 8-14 ft prevail north of 22N and
    between 25W and 40W, with seas greater than 12 ft occurring north
    of 27N and between 27W and 35W.

    The pressure gradient as a result of the low pressure near 29N27W
    and a strong high pressure system over Spain allow for fresh to
    strong SE winds to affect the Canary Islands and the coast of
    Morocco. Seas in the region are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere in the tropical
    Atlantic, the weather is tranquil, winds are moderate or weaker
    and seas are 4-7 ft.

    For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure ridging prevails over the western
    Atlantic, leading to gentle winds across the area. However,
    large northerly swell will continue to affect areas east of 76W
    and north of 23N tonight. A cold front is forecast to emerge off
    the coast of Florida on Sun morning. Strong S winds will start
    affecting waters offshore of Florida late tonight, rapidly
    increasing to gale force early Sun morning. Near gale to gale
    force winds will affect the waters N of 27N through Mon.
    Conditions will gradually improve late Tue. High pressure will
    prevail over the area for the middle of next week.

    $$
    DELGADO