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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 260516
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    116 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0500 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    The center of Subtropical Storm Alberto, at 26/0300 UTC, is near
    19.4N 85.7W, or about 175 km SE of Cozumel, Mexico, and about 290
    SSW of the western tip of Cuba. The estimated minimum central
    pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35
    knots with gusts to 45 knots. It is moving eastward or 90 degrees
    4 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
    strong rainshowers are in Cuba. isolated moderate rainshowers
    cover the eastern sections of the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and the
    Bahamas, from Cuba northward between 73W and 88W. The forecast
    calls for gradual development as Alberto moves northward into the
    south central Gulf of Mexico, as either a tropical or subtropical
    storm. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES about Subtropical Storm Alberto are
    being listed under the WMO header WTNT31 KNHC, and under the AWIPS
    header MIATCPAT1. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES about Subtropical Storm
    Alberto are being listed under the WMO header WTNT21 KNHC, and
    under the AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W from 13N
    southward. The wave was showing up well in earlier lower level PW
    imagery. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered
    strong rainshowers are from 03N to 07N between 11W and 15W.

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, moving across
    Suriname. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from
    10N southward between 50W and 60W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
    Bissau near 12N16W, to 07N20W, and to 02N26W. The ITCZ continues
    from 02N26W to 01S30W, to the Equator along 41W, to 01S39W.
    Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
    from 07N southward between 50W and 60W. isolated moderate
    elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

    ...DISCUSSION

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
    Subtropical Storm Alberto, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

    An upper level trough extends from the north central Gulf of
    Mexico, across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, into the NW corner
    of the Caribbean Sea.

    Alberto will intensify while moving northward, reaching 22.5N
    85.7W Sat afternoon with wind speeds of 45 kt gusting to 55 kt.
    Alberto will transition to a tropical cyclone Sun afternoon
    centered near 26.8N 86.2W with wind speeds of 55 kt gusting to 65
    kt, near 29.0N 87.8W Mon afternoon with wind speeds of 55 kt
    gusting to 65 kt, then inland near 31.7N 88.6W Tuesday afternoon.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    An upper level trough extends from north central Gulf of Mexico,
    across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, into the NW corner of the
    Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
    rainshowers are from 16N to 18N between 16W and 18W.

    Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
    Subtropical Storm Alberto, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

    Alberto will move to 20.7N 85.4W on Saturday morning, moving into
    the Gulf of Mexico near 22.9N 85.1W on Saturday evening, with
    winds and seas decreasing in the western Caribbean Sea thereafter.
    High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to
    strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea through early
    next week, with strongest winds along the coast of Colombia and
    in the Gulf of Venezuela.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
    Subtropical Storm Alberto, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

    Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected S of 25N through Monday,
    pulsing to fresh to strong offshore of northern Hispaniola during
    the afternoon through evening hours each day. SE to S winds will
    increase to fresh to locally strong W of 77W from Saturday night
    through Sunday night. The pressure gradient will tighten between
    Subtropical Storm Alberto in the Gulf of Mexico and high pressure
    elsewhere. Those conditions should improve by Tue as the pres
    gradient slackens.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    MT