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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 100528
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1228 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0500 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

    A cold front off the coast of N Florida to central Florida from
    32N77W to 28N81W will move further E into the Atlantic. A gale
    warning is in effect through 1200 UTC Monday N of 29 N ahead of
    the front. Expect S to SW gale force winds 30 to 35 kt, and seas 9
    to 11 feet, N of 29N between 65W-75W. Winds will diminish to
    below gale force around 1200 UTC Monday. A second cold front will
    move across the northern waters Tue. Gale force winds are forecast
    to return to the area around 0000 UTC Wed N of 29N and E of 77W
    with the second front. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
    under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
    08N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N30W to
    the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Numerous moderate/scattered
    strong convection is well south of the monsoon trough from 00N-
    02N between 05W-10W. Scattered moderate/isolated strong convection
    is elsewhere from 00N-05N between 03W-15W. Scattered
    moderate convection is seen near and just north of the ITCZ from
    02N-06N between 24W-38W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    As of 10/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from Melbourne Florida to
    just south of Fort Myers Florida near 26N82W to the NE tip of the
    Yucatan Peninsula near 21.5N87W, remaining inland over Mexico to
    17N93W. Scattered light to moderate showers are occurring along
    and within 120 nm ahead of the front. Winds over the Bay of
    Campeche have diminished below gale force, and the gale warning
    has expired there. The remainder of the Gulf W of front has fresh
    N winds. Broken low-level stratocumulus clouds cover much of the
    Gulf W of the front.

    The cold front over the SE Gulf will continue to shift SE across
    the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico through early this morning. High
    pres will build in the wake of the front. The next cold front will
    move into the NW Gulf Thu, quickly reaching the eastern Gulf late
    Thu night, pushing SE of the basin Fri Night. Strong to near gale
    force winds will follow that next front, potentially higher.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Tradewinds of 15-25 kt are over the eastern and central Caribbean
    with strongest winds near the coast of N Colombia. In the NW
    Caribbean, a surface trough is located about 60 nm ahead of the
    cold front mentioned above in the Gulf of Mexico section, from the
    W tip of Cuba to Cozumel Mexico as of 0300 UTC. Scattered showers
    are over the NW Caribbean from 18N-22N between 77W-84W.
    Subsidence and relatively dry air cover the eastern and central
    Caribbean.

    Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central
    Caribbean through Fri night, pulsing to near gale off the coast of
    Colombia at night. A cold front that is currently moving into the
    Yucatan Channel, will reach from near the Windward Passage to
    near the Honduras/Nicaragua border by Tue night where it will
    stall and dissipate through Wed. Fresh to strong winds will
    prevail behind the front Mon afternoon through early Wed. Another
    cold front may enter the NW Caribbean by Fri night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends over the NW Atlantic from 31N76W to Melbourne
    Florida. A surface trough is ahead of the front from Grand Bahama
    Island to Key Largo Florida to western Cuba. Scattered moderate
    convection is seen within 60 nm of a line extending from 32N72W to
    30N75W to 27N78W. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring
    N of 29N between 60W-69W. Upper-level diffluence is enhancing
    convection in both of those two areas.

    Farther E, a cold front is over the central Atlantic from 32N41W
    to 27N49W to 25N52W. It continues as a stationary front from that
    point to 25N55W to 26N60W. Scattered showers are seen N of 27N
    between 35W-42W. Elsewhere along and within 60 nm ahead of the
    front, isolated showers are noted. A surface trough is over the E
    Atlantic from 31N33W to 24N28W. An upper level trough over the E
    Atlantic with axis from 32N25W to 25N33W to 18N50W is helping to
    enhance scattered showers N of 27N between 15W-25W.

    Expect the cold front off the coast of northern Florida to move E.
    A gale warning is in effect N of 29N ahead of the front in the
    S to SW flow through 1200 UTC Mon. A second cold front will
    move across the northern waters Tue, with gale winds possible by
    00Z Wed. The two fronts are forecast to merge on Wed. Return flow
    will dominate for the end of the week, with another potentially
    strong cold front impacting the NW portion by late Fri.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    Hagen