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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 170439
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1238 AM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0415 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    A 1002 mb low pressure center is in Guatemala near 16N91W. This
    low pressure center is part of a broad area of low pressure, a
    Central American Gyre. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and
    isolated strong rainshowers cover Central America and Mexico. This
    weather system is expected to move westward with time. The
    probability of tropical cyclone development for the Atlantic Basin
    is low. The potential for inland heavy rainfall, flash flooding
    and mudslides over areas of mountainous terrain is high. Please,
    refer to your local meteorological service for specific
    information about this potentially dangerous weather pattern.

    A stationary front passes through south central Louisiana to a
    1016 mb low pressure center that is near 27N94W. The stationary
    front continues from the 1016 mb low pressure center, to 23N95W,
    to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W, and it curves westward and
    northwestward to 20N99W, inland in Mexico, to 25N101W. The
    forecast consists of NW-to-N GALE-force winds from 25N southward
    from the front westward. Expect sea heights to range from 8 feet
    to 14 feet. Expect the GALE-force winds to continue for nearly
    the next 48 hours.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/26W from 15N
    southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is
    from 04N to 16N between Africa and 30W.

    A tropical wave is along 60W/61W from 21N southward. It is moving
    through the area of the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea.
    Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the
    Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 08N to 21N between 50W
    and 63W. It is possible that some of this precipitation also may
    be more related to the ITCZ.

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W/77W from 20N and SE
    Cuba southward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow also is in
    the area. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from
    the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida southward from 70W
    westward.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near
    10N14W to 08N24W. The ITCZ is along 08N28W 04N36W. Isolated
    moderate rainshowers cover the rest of the area from 10N southward
    from 40W eastward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
    rainshowers cover the area that runs from 05N to 10N between 45W
    and 50W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front is in the western part of the area, passing
    through southern Louisiana, into the SW corner of the Gulf of
    Mexico. Gale-force winds are associated with the front. Please
    reference the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details. Widely
    scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 27N
    southward from 91W westward. An upper level inverted trough is on
    top of the area of the stationary front.

    Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 27N
    southward from 88W eastward. This cyclonic wind flow is part of
    the larger-scale area of cyclonic wind flow, that also covers the
    Atlantic Ocean from 27N southward from 70W westward, across the
    Bahamas, and in the Caribbean Sea from Puerto Rico westward.

    The current N gale-force winds, that are to the west of the
    stationary front, will persist through Thursday, with fresh to
    strong winds N of there and behind the front. The wind speeds
    will diminish to less than gale force on Thursday night and
    Friday, as the front weakens. It is possible that the front may
    be reinforced, and pushed E late during the upcoming weekend.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
    about heavy rainfall that is associated with the Central American
    Gyre, and the 1001 mb low pressure center that is in Mexico, just
    outside the border with Guatemala, near 16N91W.

    Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
    Puerto Rico westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong
    rainshowers are from the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida
    southward from 70W westward.

    Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail through the next
    several days, except locally strong near the Gulf of Honduras,
    the approach to the Windward Passage, S of Hispaniola, and in the
    Lee of eastern Cuba, through the end of the week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 27N
    southward from 70W westward, across the Bahamas, and in the
    Caribbean Sea from Puerto Rico westward. Isolated moderate
    rainshowers are from 24N southward between 60W and 70W, and from
    27N southward from 70W westward.

    Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
    from 20N northward from 50W eastward. A surface trough is along
    24N37W 20N36W 16N36W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the
    area of upper level cyclonic wind flow.

    Gentle to moderate return flow N of 27N, and moderate to fresh
    trade winds S of 27N, will prevail through Wednesday night, with
    surface high pressure NE of the area. A backdoor cold front will
    drop S of 31N on Thursday, with freshening winds and building seas
    through Friday, before decreasing on Saturday. It is possible
    that another cold front may enter the NW part of the area on
    Saturday night, once again with increasing winds and building seas
    behind the front.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    MT