Buoy Observation Cams

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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    AXNT20 KNHC 231723

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    123 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1645 UTC.

    Hurricane Maria is centered near 25.4N 72.3W at 23/1500 UTC or
    about 215 nm E of Eleuthera Island and about 280 nm E of Nassau
    Bahamas moving N-NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
    is 952 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to
    125 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is within 135 nm
    of center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 22N-30N
    between 69W-76W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
    20N-29N between 63W-69W...and from 27N-31N between 76W-80W. See
    the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
    MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

    Tropical Storm Lee is centered near 31.9N 49.4W at 23/1500 UTC or
    about 780 nm E of Bermuda and about 1155 nm WSW of the Azores
    moving N at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 1007 mb.
    Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
    Widely scattered moderate convection is from 31N-33N between
    49W-51W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
    headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

    Tropical wave extends from 09N22W to 22N20W moving W at 5-10 kt.
    The wave coincides with a 700 mb low...the northern vortex...
    centered near 21N21W and associated 700 mb troughing between
    16W-28W. No significant deep convection is associated with the
    wave axis at this time. Ongoing deep convection remains S of the
    monsoon trough axis and will be mentioned below.

    Tropical wave extends from 05N56W to 17N55W moving W at 10-15 kt.
    The wave remains on the southwestern periphery of a 700 mb ridge
    anchored near 22N40W and lies beneath an upper level trough axis
    extending from 25N52W to a broad base deep in the tropics near
    05N55W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-12N
    between 49W-61W.

    The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near
    14N17W to 09N23W to 06N33W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
    axis extends from 06N33W to 05N38W to 06N46W. Scattered moderate
    convection is from 06N-13N between 14W-21W.


    A middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery
    centered over the Florida panhandle near 31N85W with a trough axis
    extending southward over the eastern Gulf to a broad base over the
    Yucatan peninsula and NW Caribbean Sea. An overall weak pressure
    pattern across the basin is resulting in gentle to moderate
    easterly winds with areas of isolated showers and tstms generally
    occurring from 23N-29N between 84W-89W under the influence of the
    middle to upper level lifting dynamics in place. W of 90W...dry
    and stable northerly flow aloft and generally gentle to moderate
    E-SE winds are providing for fair conditions and mostly clear
    skies this afternoon. Through the remainder of the weekend into
    the middle of next week...little change is expected in overall
    conditions. By Tuesday night into Wednesday...E-SE flow will
    increase slightly into moderate to occasional fresh breeze
    conditions as ridging noses in from the Arklatex region into the
    eastern Gulf Wednesday into Thursday.

    West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails W of 72W this afternoon as
    Hurricane Maria is well north of the basin and an overall weak
    pressure pattern remains in place across the central and western
    Caribbean. As a result of the weaker pressure pattern...winds
    remain generally light to gentle and variable at times. A couple
    of weak surface troughs are analyzed...one from the coast of
    eastern Cuba near 20N78W to the central coast of Honduras near 16N
    86W...the other extending south of Hispaniola near 17N71W to
    12N70W. Across the NW Caribbean...skies remain mostly clear with
    fair conditions prevailing this afternoon. To the east...the other
    surface trough is providing focus for widely scattered showers and
    tstms from 13N-18N between 69W-72W. In addition...across the SW
    Caribbean...the monsoon trough axis extends along 08N/09N with
    scattered showers and strong tstms occurring S of 12N between
    75W-83W. Finally...a tropical wave currently along 56W will
    continue approaching the Lesser Antilles through Sunday and
    increase the probability of isolated showers and tstms...otherwise
    moderate to occasional fresh SE winds will prevail E of 70W.

    A surface trough currently extends from the south-central coast
    near 17N71W to 12N71W across the central Caribbean Sea and
    continues to provide focus for scattered showers and tstms across
    the southeastern portion of the island this afternoon. The
    troughing will slide westward through Sunday as weak ridging
    builds in from the central Atlc from the east.

    Outside the influence of Maria across the SW North Atlc
    waters...surface ridging prevails across much of the remainder of
    the central and eastern Atlc. A 1021 mb high is centered E-NE from
    Bermuda near 34N56W and a 1021 mb high is centered across the
    central Atlc near 31N40W. Between these two highs...Tropical Storm
    Lee continues to influence the waters from 30N-35N between 45W-
    53W. In addition...a middle to upper level low is centered near
    27N53W generating scattered showers and tstms from 25N-32N between

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