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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 221757
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    157 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Updated to include Gale Warning conditions in Special Features
    section

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1615 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...
    A tropical wave extends from 14N89W to 24N88W moving NW at 10-15
    kt. The remnant circulation of Harvey continues to be analyzed as
    a 1010 mb low along the wave axis near 19N89W with scattered
    moderate convection occurring from 19N-24N between 84W-89W. Widely
    scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 16N-27N between
    84W-92W. The low pressure area along the wave is forecast to
    emerge off the coast of the Yucatan peninsula tonight with
    environmental conditions favorable for development across the SW
    Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. Largest impacts at this point
    will be the expected rainfall and strong convection today across
    the Yucatan peninsula and adjacent coastal waters through this
    evening. By Thursday...regardless of tropical cyclone
    development...gale force winds are expected across portions of
    the Gulf of Mexico waters from 21N-25N between 90W-94W. See
    latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
    MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC and the Tropical Weather Outlook under
    AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...
    A tropical wave extends from 15N31W to 24N27W moving W at 15-20
    kt. The wave coincides with an amplified 700 mb between 23W-37W
    with a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity to the immediate west
    of the wave axis that remains largely associated with a 1012 mb
    low centered near 15N32W. Scattered moderate convection is from
    11N-16N between 25W-31W.

    A tropical wave extends from 08N72W to 17N72W moving W at 20-25
    kt. The wave has continued a westward motion after energy
    fractured to the N and is now associated with a surface trough
    across the central Atlc waters. The wave is expected to move
    across the central Caribbean Sea and portions of Venezuela
    through tonight and across the SW Caribbean Sea on Wednesday.
    Scattered moderate convection is from 14N-17N between 69W-74W.

    ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
    The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
    17N24W then resumes near 14N32W to 08N43W to 08N49W. The
    Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N49W to
    10N57W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from
    06N-14N between 12W-20W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
    within 120 nm either side of a line from 11N31W to 06N39W to
    06N46W.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...
    An upper level low is centered over the western Gulf near 27N92W
    and continues to support isolated showers and tstms occurring
    primarily N of 23N between 87W-96W. Some of the convection within
    the southeastern periphery of this area begins to fall under the
    influence of a tropical wave and the remnant low of Harvey
    mentioned in the Special Features section above. The northern
    extent of the wave extends along 89W with the 1010 mb low centered
    across the Yucatan peninsula near 19N89W. Scattered showers and
    tstms are occurring S of 27N between 85W-91W in association with
    the wave. Otherwise...ridging to the N remains anchored across
    the SE CONUS with a 1019 mb high centered across the Lower
    Mississippi River valley. Light to moderate easterly winds prevail
    mainly N of 22N. This overall synoptic pattern is expected to
    persist until tonight when the Special Features low pressure area
    emerges off the coast of the Yucatan peninsula and into the SW
    Gulf waters where environmental conditions are favorable for
    development of a tropical cyclone later this week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...
    The Special Features tropical wave is mentioned above...however
    scattered showers and isolated tstms continue to impact the NW
    Caribbean and portions of Central America as the low pressure area
    analyzed along the wave axis moves NW into the Gulf of Mexico
    waters by tonight. Low-level convergence is maximized along a line
    from near 18N86W offshore of Honduras southward along coastal
    Nicaragua to 11N84W. Another tropical wave is across the central
    Caribbean and continues to support scattered showers and tstms
    from 14N-17N between 69W-74W. The wave is expected to reach
    Central America by Thursday. Otherwise...moderate to occasional
    fresh trades are expected through Thursday night.

    ...HISPANIOLA...
    A tropical wave continues to skirt south of the island this
    afternoon with convection remaining generally S of 17N at this
    time. Otherwise...skies are mostly clear with fair conditions
    expected through Wednesday as dry air and subsidence prevails
    aloft over the region.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...
    The SW North Atlc is under the influence of a weak upper level
    low near 28N79W and an inverted upper level trough extending from
    the low to 23N78W. The troughing supports a surface trough
    extending from the Florida Straits near 24N81W to 30N77W with
    scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring from 21N-31N
    between 73W-81W...including the Bahamas and the adjacent coastal
    waters. Farther east...water vapor imagery indicates a middle to
    upper level trough progressing over the central North Atlc waters
    in the vicinity of 38N61W supporting a cold front extending from
    33N60W to 32N65W then stationary to the W-NW to 33N70W. Scattered
    showers and tstms are occurring N of 26N between 59W-66W and falls
    on the northwestern periphery of an upper level low centered near
    26N58W. While the upper level low is enhancing convection south of
    the front...it also supports a surface trough extending from
    15N59W to 22N57W to 27N59W within the eastern periphery of the
    upper level feature. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring
    primarily E of the surface trough from 22N-30N between 51W-56W.
    Finally...a dissipating cold front bridges the subtropical ridge
    across the eastern Atlc with the front extending from 32N31W to
    28N37W to 29N43W. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm
    either side of the front.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    HUFFMAN