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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    844
    AXNT20 KNHC 230528
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    128 AM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0515 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is moving across the far east Atlantic with axis
    extending from 09N to 23N along roughly 26W, moving W at 10-15
    kt. A large area of Saharan dust is noted along the wave mainly north
    of 10N. Scattered showers are noted where the tropical wave
    intersects the monsoon trough off the coasts of Sierra Leone and
    Guinea, from 07N to 10N east of 12W.

    A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
    from 08N-23N along 44W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This tropical wave
    continues to be on the leading edge of a large area of Saharan dry
    air and dust, inhibiting large scale convection at this time.
    Isolated cells are noted on the southern end of the tropical wave
    where it intersects the monsoon trough.

    A tropical wave is in the western tropical Atlantic with axis
    extending from 10N-24N along 58W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The
    tropical wave is accompanied by Saharan dry air and dust,
    inhibiting convection.

    A low amplitude and low latitude tropical wave is moving across
    the south central Caribbean and the Pacific coast of Colombia and
    adjacent waters, along 81W and south of 11N. The tropical wave
    may be interacting with overnight drainage flow to support a large
    area of showers and a few thunderstorms off the Gulf of Panama.

    A tropical wave extends across southern Mexico and the EPAC waters
    along 95W and south of 18N. Scattered showers are noted along the
    wave's axis over Mexico. A larger area of convection is observed
    over the EPAC waters with this feature.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W
    to 08N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N46W to 05N54W. Scattered
    moderate convection is noted from 05N-09N between 34W-42W.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface trough moving across the Florida Panhandle enhancing
    scattered moderate convection that will continue moving south
    reaching the far northeast Gulf waters overnight. The remainder
    of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored
    by a 1015 mb high centered near 23N90W. This feature is
    maintaining fair weather, light to gentle winds, and 1 to 3 ft
    seas across the basin.

    The surface trough over the northeast Gulf will be followed by a
    weak cold front that will move over the northern Gulf waters
    early this week. This front will become stationary and weaken
    quickly through the week. A surface trough will move off the
    Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche each evening,
    accompanied by fresh nocturnal winds. Elsewhere, surface ridging
    will prevail.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The northern portion of a tropical wave will is moving across the
    far southwestern Caribbean today, just north of Panama. This may
    bring increased showers and thunderstorms especially tonight, from
    the central coast of Panama to Costa Rica. Dry conditions persist
    elsewhere. Earlier scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong
    trade winds over the south central Caribbean, mainly off Colombia.
    Maximum seas are estimated to be 8 to 10 ft. Seas are 3 to 5 ft
    in the northwest Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. A tropical
    wave is approaching 58W, and will enter the east Caribbean today.
    While Saharan dry air and dust are inhibiting showers and
    thunderstorms, there may be isolated showers at least in the
    Windward Islands as the tropical wave moves into the region.
    Little change is expected elsewhere.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
    section above for details.

    Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing over the northern
    Bahamas and adjacent waters, related to divergent flow aloft.
    Gusty winds are possible with these thunderstorms. Moderate S to
    SW winds are noted west of 70W with 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters.
    A broad high prevails across the remainder of the basin, centered
    near 41N48W. For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure along
    with the low pressure system over the southeast U.S. will continue
    to produce moderate to fresh southerly winds across the waters
    just offshore the central and northeast Florida through Wed.
    Moderate to fresh winds are also expected south of 22N, including
    approaches to the Windward Passage. Ridging will dominate the area
    most of the forecast period, with a surface trough reaching the E
    part of the region by Thu.

    For additional information
    please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$

    ERA