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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 191045
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    545 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1015 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURE...

    As of 0900 UTC, a fast moving cold front over the N Gulf of
    Mexico extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N84W, to the NW
    Gulf near 24N96W, to N of Tampico Mexico near 22.5N98W. Gale
    force northerly winds are W of 90W and N of front, with seas to 8
    ft. The cold front in 24 hours will extend from S Florida to the
    SW Bay of Campeche. Gale force winds will persist for the next 24
    hours over portions of the Gulf. See the latest high seas
    forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 for more details.

    ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

    The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
    07N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
    07N20W to 06N40W to the South American coast near 07N58W.
    Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N between 14W-21W,
    and from 04N-07N between 31W-36W.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front and gale are over the N Gulf of Mexico. See above.
    Scattered showers are within 15 nm of the front. Radar imagery
    also shows the remainder of the Gulf is void of precipitation.
    5-15 kt southerly winds are S of the front. Mostly fair weather is
    S of the front. In the upper levels, zonal flow is noted with
    strong subsidence. Expect in 24 hours for the front to extend from
    S Florida to the SW Bay of Campeche. Gale force winds will then
    be S of 21N W of front.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A 1007 mb low is centered near the N tip of Colombia at 13.5N71W.
    A surface trough extends NE from the low through the Mona Passage
    to the Atlantic near 21N64W. Scattered moderate to strong
    convection is near the low from 12N-17N between 68W-72W, to
    include Aruba and Curacao. Scattered showers are elsewhere within
    360 nm E of the trough axis, to include Puerto Rico and the Virgin
    Islands. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the
    NW Caribbean with axis from E Cuba near 20N74W to the Gulf of
    Honduras near 16N89W. Upper level diffluence E of the trough is
    enhancing the showers and convection over the central Caribbean
    Sea. Expect the area of convection to drift E and persist for the
    next 48 hours.

    ...HISPANIOLA...

    Scattered showers are over E Hispaniola, and will continue
    through Monday. Expect convection to be heaviest over E
    Hispaniola in the afternoon and evening hours during maximum
    heating. Localized flooding is also possible during this time.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A 1018 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 34N62W
    producing fair weather. A stationary front is over the central
    Atlantic from 31N39W to 25N50W, to 21N59W. Scattered moderate
    convection is within 180 nm of the front. A 1018 mb high is
    centered over the E Atlantic near 30N27W also producing fair
    weather. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough
    is over the W Atlantic enhancing the central Atlantic with upper
    level diffluence. Another upper level trough is over the far E
    Atlantic and Morocco.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    Formosa