Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 051731
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    100 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Depression Eta, located inland over Honduras.

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 052233
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Fri Mar 5 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2230 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N16W
    to 02N26W. The ITCZ continues from 02N61W to the coast of Brazil
    near 01S51W. Scattered showers are noted within 240 nm on either
    sides of the ITCZ mainly west of 30W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Weather conditions remain quiet across the Gulf this evening, as
    a weak surface ridge persists across the region. The weak
    pressure gradient is allowing winds to remain gentle to moderate,
    which is keeping seas generally 2-3 ft across most of the area.
    No significant convection is evident from radar or satellite data.

    A low pressure system is expected develop over the NW Gulf
    tonight, then deepen and move E-SE across the Gulf through Sat
    evening. High pressure building behind the front will support
    strong east winds across the eastern Gulf Sat night through late
    Tue.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The tail end of a frontal boundary remains stalled over the
    northwestern Caribbean Sea from eastern Cuba to the Yucatan
    Peninsula. Scattered showers are possible along the boundary, but
    no convection is occurring at the moment due to widespread dry
    air in the mid- and upper-levels. Scatterometer data depicts
    moderate northerly winds just north of the front, while light to
    gentle winds prevail south of the front. Gentle to moderate
    easterly winds prevail elsewhere, with highest winds noted within
    90 nm north of the Colombia coast. Scattered showers are also
    possible over the eastern Caribbean Sea near a weak surface
    trough. Seas range 2-5 ft with upwards of 7 ft north of
    Colombia.

    The stationary front will dissipate through Sat. Fresh to
    occasionally strong winds will pulse in the southern Caribbean
    through Sun, with gentle to moderate winds expected elsewhere. A
    cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean late Sat night
    through Sun, and gradually stall from Hispaniola to Honduras
    Tue. Strong NE winds and building seas will follow the front
    over the western Caribbean.

    Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is
    expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in
    association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian
    Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals
    of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW
    Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over
    northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please
    refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for
    more details.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front passes through 31N58W to 24N68W and then becomes
    stationary to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers are noted along
    and ahead of the front N of 23N. Seas are 5-8 ft near the front
    with moderate north winds behind it and fresh to strong SW winds
    ahead of it.

    The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the
    influence of strong high pressure centered near the Azores. The
    associated ridge covers the waters between the Canary Islands and
    the NE Caribbean. Strong westerly winds are transporting upper
    level moisture from the deep tropics near South America to
    western Africa, including the Cabo Verde Islands.

    The cold front will weaken and stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba
    early Sat. Northerly winds will follow the front, then shift
    from the east Sat, increasing north of 27N late Sat. A developing
    low pressure system will move rapidly from central Florida to
    Bermuda Sat night through Sun night, accompanied by strong to
    near-gale force winds. The low will drag a cold front across the
    region through early next week. High pressure will build north of
    27N by Mon, supporting strong NE winds south of 27N through Tue
    night.

    $$
    ERA/JPC