Tropical Track & Forecast
Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
[columns] [column_item col=6]
Current Infrared Satellite Image2014 Tropical Cyclone TracksAtlantic Tropical Weather OutlookNational Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
|
Latest Tropical Weather Outlook[columns] [column_item col=6] |
[columns] [column_item col=6] Probability of Formation 0-24hrs
Probability of Formation 24-48hrs
|
Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion
NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)-
NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
000
AXNT20 KNHC 212300
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun May 22 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Heavy Rainfall over Central America and SE Mexico: A broad area
of low pressure centered just off the Pacific coast of eastern El
Salvador has produced periods of heavy rain during the past 24
hours (20/1800 UTC to 21/1800 UTC) over portions of northern
Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, coastal El Salvador and southern
Guatemala, as indicated by a 24-hr infrared satellite loop. The
current satellite imagery shows scattered to locally numerous moderate
to strong convection extending from central Guatemala east and
southeastward across Honduras, Nicaragua, and covering much of the
southwest Caribbean south of 15N and west of 80W. Other scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring over land
across Costa Rica. Over the next 4 days or so (through Wed 25
May), additional periods of moderate to heavy rain, with locally
heavy to extreme rain, are expected over portions of western
Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, southern Honduras, El Salvador,
southern Guatemala and the Mexican state of Chiapas. There is
potential for localized areas of flash flooding and mudslides,
especially across mountainous terrain. This is a slow moving
weather system. High atmospheric moisture content is expected over
the area for the next several days. Please refer to products
issued by your local or national meteorological agency for more
information.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is in the Atlantic with axis along 56W-57W, from
14N southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted near the ITCZ from 05N-09N between 50W-58W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the Senegal coast near 14N16.5W
to 06N26W. The ITCZ continues from 06N26W to 04.5N35W to 07N54W.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from
03.5N-101N between the coast of Africa and 20W, while scattered
moderate to strong is noted further west, from 05N to 07N between
20W and 29W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of the
ITCZ from 06N to 09.5N between 36W and 50W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper-level trough extends from Mississippi southward to the
southeast Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level diffluence on the east side
of the upper trough is supporting numerous moderate and scattered
strong convection covering the NE Gulf of Mexico, north of 25N
and east of 90W. Gusty winds and frequent lightning are occurring
with these thunderstorms. GOES-16 infrared imagery depicts cloud
tops as cold as -76 deg C. A recent satellite altimeter pass from
21/1630 UTC showed seas of 7 to 8 ft off the coast of central
Texas. Fresh SE winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere across
the basin W of 90W, while fresh to strong winds are across much of
the eastern Gulf between 85W and 90W, where seas are estimated to
be 7-9 ft. Smoke from agricultural fires over Mexico continues to
spread northward and is producing hazy skies across the western
Gulf west of 93W off Mexico and southern Texas.
For the forecast, the area of strong thunderstorms over the NE
Gulf of Mexico is expected to linger into the evening hours and slowly
migrating W toward the north-central Gulf. Fresh to strong
southeast winds along with rough seas will prevail from the
south-central Gulf to the northwest Gulf into Sun between high
pressure over the western Atlantic and broad low pressure over
southern Mexico and northern Central America. Winds and seas will
diminish Sun into Mon as the low pressure weakens, except for
pulses of fresh to strong winds off the north coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula, mainly at night. Looking ahead, a ridge will build
from the western Atlantic across the northern Gulf through mid-
week, supporting fresh southeast return flow over the western
Gulf.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The eastern periphery of a broad cyclonic circulation over
Central America, combined with the east Pacific monsoon trough, is
combining to produce scattered to numerous deep convection across
the southwest Caribbean, described above. Cloudiness with
possible isolated showers prevails elsewhere over the NW Caribbean
to the west of Jamaica. Mainly fair weather is found over the
eastern and central Caribbean, east of 77W, due to subsidence from
mid-level ridging over the area. A recent ASCAT satellite data
pass showed fresh to strong E to SE trades over much of the
central and western Caribbean. Moderate E trades cover the eastern
basin. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are likely occurring over the far NW
Caribbean to the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 7-10 ft are over the
waters in between Colombia and Jamaica, while 3-5 ft seas prevail
across the E basin.
For the forecast, broad low pressure over Central America will
persist through Sun as high pressure builds over the western
Atlantic. This pattern will support fresh to strong east to
southeast winds and rough seas over the central and northwest
Caribbean through Sun. Winds and seas will start to diminish
across the basin early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface ridge extends east to west from a 1027 mb high pressure
near 33N28W to 27N44W, while a second high of 1027 mb is centered
near 32N69W and extends to the coast of Georgia. This ridge is
maintaining light to gentle winds north of 24N between 40W-75W,
with 3-4 ft seas. A recent ASCAT satellite wind data pass shows
moderate to fresh SE winds from north of Hispaniola through the
Old Bahama Channel to South Florida. Currently, seas near the
Windward Passage are likely 4 to 5 ft, while 3 to 4 ft seas
prevail over the remainder of the western Atlantic. A couple of
weak surface troughs over the central Atlantic are inducing some
scattered showers north of 23N between 38W-53W. Recent ASCAT data
showed fresh trades north of the ITCZ to 16N between 40W and 60W,
where seas are likely 5 to 7 ft. Moderate trades and 5-6 ft seas
are elsewhere from the ITCZ to 20N between 30W- 60W. Fresh NNE
winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail north of 20N between the coast of
Africa and 21W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure ridge along 32N
will strengthen some through the weekend, then weaken next week.
The associated pressure gradient will allow for mainly gentle to
moderate winds across the region through the period, except for
pulsing moderate to fresh east winds north of Hispaniola through
late Sun. Moderate northeast swell may impact the waters east of
60W and north of 25N Sun through Tue. The swell is expected to
subside Tue night into Wed.
$$
Stripling