NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

• NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 031049
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  649 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  0910 UTC.
  
  ...TROPICAL WAVES...
  
  A tropical wave is just offshore of western Africa, along
  18W/19W, from 21N southward, moving west at 15-20 knots.
  Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03.5N to 11.5N between
  20W and the west coast of Africa.
  
  An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, southward of 18N,
  moving west at 15 knots. Precipitation: the wave is moving
  through the area of nearby ITCZ precipitation. Saharan air is
  noted ahead and N of 15N across the wave axis and is producing low
  level stratocumulus. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
  06.5N to 12N between 30W and 37W.
  
  A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W from 17N southward,
  moving west at 20 knots. This wave has been accompanied by
  Saharan air and diminishing dust to the south of 14N. Small
  clusters of moderate convection are noted well ahead and well
  behind the wave axis across portions of coastal Venezuela.
  
  A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W, from 20N southward,
  moving westward 20 to 25 knots. Scattered moderate isolated
  strong convection is noted south of 13N between 76W and 81W and
  extend southward to 06N across the eastern Pacific.
  
  A tropical wave across the eastern Pacific along 93W/94W extends
  northward across southern Mexico to the central Bay of Campeche
  along 20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is interacting with a
  middle to upper level trough from the central Gulf to interior
  Mexico west of Veracruz. Associated convection is noted across
  southern Mexico and the adjacent eastern Pacific waters.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
  Guinea-Bissau, near 12N16W, to 07N36W. The ITCZ is along 06N40W,
  to 05N47W to 06N56W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
  noted within 240 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 23W
  and 33W, and within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 40W and 50W.
  
  GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  An middle to upper level trough extends from central Florida
  coast, southwestward, across the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico
  and into south central Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
  covers the rest of the area, mostly in the NW corner of the Gulf
  of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection extends across the SE
  Gulf from 22.5N to 25N between 90W and the Florida Keys. A few
  clusters of moderate convection are moving southeastward across
  the Florida Big Bend waters.
  
  A 1016 mb high pressure is centered near 27N91W and is
  producing anticyclonic flow across the basin. Weak low level
  troughing extending east to west across the Florida Panhandle is
  helping to maintain moderate westerly winds across the NE Gulf to
  the mouth of the Mississippi River. This pattern will prevail
  through Mon to yield generally fair to benign marine conditions.
  However, expect fresh SE winds at times in the SW Gulf of Mexico
  early next week. W to NW winds across the northeast Gulf waters
  will also yield periods of active weather.
  
  CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W moving westward 20
  knots. This wave remains surrounded by Saharan air. A second
  tropical wave is along 78W moving westward 20 to 25 kt.
  A ridge extends from a central Atlantic Ocean high pressure
  center, WSW to the NW Bahamas. The ridge will maintain fresh to
  occasionally strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea
  into Wednesday. Pulses of fresh to locally strong winds also are
  possible early next week in the Gulf of Honduras.
  
  ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  An upper level trough extends from a 27N53W cyclonic circulation
  center, southwestward, to the eastern Caribbean Sea, and the
  67W/68W tropical wave.
  
  A stationary front extends from coastal Georgia along 32N, with
  moderate to fresh SW winds S of the boundary from NE Florida to W
  of Bermuda.
  
  A high pressure center is in the central Atlantic Ocean. A ridge
  extends WSW, from the center, to the NW Bahamas. The ridge will
  persist through early next week. Low pressure offshore of Cape
  Hatteras will move eastward Sunday and maintain SW winds across
  the NW offshore waters. Expect rainshowers and thunderstorms with
  gusty winds, to the areas that are to the north of 27N.
  
  Mostly sunny and uncomfortably warm temperatures are expected
  across South Florida the remainder of this week under the
  influence of a ridge. Isolated to scattered showers and
  thunderstorms are forecast in the afternoon and early evening
  hours.
  
  $$
  Stripling