Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 011454
    TWOAT

    Special Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    955 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between
    the Madeira Islands and the Azores. This system has become less
    organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are
    expected to become less conducive for development as the system
    moves southwestward during the next day or two. Although
    subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue
    to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira
    Islands and the Azores through Wednesday. Additional information on
    this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo
    France.

    This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on
    this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will
    resume on June 1, 2021, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will
    be issued as necessary during the off-season.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

    &&
    High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
    header FQNT50 LFPW.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 052115
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Thu May 6 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2100 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of western Africa
    near 09N14W to 03N21W to 00N34W. The ITCZ begins near 00N34W and
    continues to 01N42W to near 03N50W. Scattered moderate to
    isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 08N E of 24W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front extends from near Mobile, Alabama, to near Tampico,
    Mexico. Thunderstorms are ahead of the front, within about 90 nm
    of the coast of the Florida Panhandle. A surface trough remains in
    the western Gulf, ahead of the cold front, from 28N91W to 18N93W,
    but the low pressure previously along the trough has dissipated.
    Hazy sky conditions associated with agricultural fires over
    southern Mexico are reducing visibilities across the SW Gulf of
    Mexico. Hazy skies and areas of smoke are likely to continue for
    several more days. Across the remainder of the Gulf basin,
    generally fair weather prevails with gentle to moderate southerly winds.

    The cold front will become stationary over the northern Gulf this
    evening. High pressure building in behind it will act to push the
    eastern part of the front to the far eastern Gulf by early Fri
    evening. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are expected in the
    western and central Gulf this weekend and into early next week as
    the high pressure shifts eastward.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Generally moderate to locally fresh easterly trades cover the
    majority of the basin, except fresh to strong SE winds are
    likely still continuing north of Honduras in the NW Caribbean,
    including the Gulf of Honduras. Satellite imagery shows a line of
    moderate convection, associated with the monsoon trough that
    extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean across Panama to northern
    Colombia, continues over the southwest Caribbean S of 11N.

    A ridge north of the area will support moderate to occasionally
    fresh trade winds over much of the basin through Sat. Stronger
    trades are likely in the central Caribbean on Sun and into early
    next week as high pressure builds to the north. Fresh to strong
    southeast winds in the NW Caribbean, including Gulf of Honduras,
    will diminish Thu. Hazy sky conditions and areas of smoke due to
    agricultural fires in Central America are expected to continue
    through the end of the week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A broad ridge extends across the entire subtropical Atlantic,
    anchored by high pressure centers analyzed near 35N23W, 33N38W,
    and a 1024 mb high near 27N61W. This ridge is responsible
    for a large, expansive area of gentle to moderate winds, 2 to 4
    ft seas, and fair weather across most of the central and western
    Atlantic Ocean, north of 15N-20N, east of 50W. Moderate to fresh
    trade winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail across the waters south
    of 15N-20N. The only other surface feature of note is a trough
    over the eastern Atlantic that extends from 31N32W to 26N35W.
    Convection previously associated with this feature dissipated this
    afternoon.

    The ridge along 27N will support gentle to moderate winds across
    most of the region through tonight. A cold front will move over
    the northwest waters Thu night, and reach from 31N76W to the
    Straits of Florida Fri morning. The northern part of the front
    will continue eastward across the northern forecast waters through
    Sat night while weakening. A high pressure ridge will build along
    31N in the wake of the front through Sun night. The ridge will
    shift eastward Mon as another cold front approaches the far NW
    waters.

    $$
    KONARIK