Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 161502
    TWOAT

    Special Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1005 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
    subtropical development over the northwest Atlantic.

    Northwestern Atlantic:
    A non-tropical low pressure system centered over the northwestern
    Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles north of Bermuda is producing
    storm-force winds. Although the cyclone is producing some
    thunderstorm activity near the center, it is embedded in a cold air
    mass with nearby frontal boundaries. The low is expected to move
    northeastward today and northward tonight, bringing the system over
    much colder waters and across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday.
    Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a
    subtropical or tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, the system is
    expected to remain a strong non-tropical low during the next day or
    so, and additional information, including storm-force wind warnings,
    can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
    Service.

    No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for
    this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will
    resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will
    be issued as necessary during the off-season.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

    &&
    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
    found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
    online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 021705
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Thu Feb 2 2023

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1630 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between the
    subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressure
    over northern Colombia will support pulsing minimal gale force
    winds off the coast of Colombia tonight. Seas will peak at 10
    to 12 ft with the strongest winds.

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Expect winds to gale force along
    with very rough seas off the coast of Veracruz from early Fri
    morning through Fri evening, following a cold front sweeping
    across the Gulf.

    Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
    National Hurricane Center at
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N12W
    to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01S45W. Scattered
    moderate convection is evident S of 06N between 12W-50W.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf waters
    offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Please see the Special Features
    section above for more details.

    A stationary front extends from near Panama City, Florida to a
    1016 mb low pressure in the northwest Gulf near 28N94W, then
    southward to 20N96W. Moderate to fresh winds are evident to the
    north and west of the front/low, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Gentle to
    moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft wave heights are evident elsewhere.

    For the forecast, the low pressure over the NW Gulf will move to
    the Carolinas through tonight. A trailing cold front will sweep
    across the Gulf through Fri night. Winds to gale force and very
    rough seas will follow the front over the far SW Gulf off the
    coast of Veracruz starting early Fri morning and persist through
    the remainder of the day. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to
    rough seas will follow elsewhere through Fri. Winds and seas will
    diminish from west to east through Sat night across the Gulf as
    high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Looking ahead,
    expect fresh S return flow across the NW Gulf on Mon.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
    Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

    The subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean Sea sustains fresh
    to strong easterly trade winds across the Windward Passage and
    the central Caribbean Sea. The strongest winds are occurring off
    the higher coastal terrain of Colombia, with 8 to 10 ft seas.
    Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas
    are noted elsewhere.

    For the forecast, the strong to near-gale NE winds will persist
    off the coast of Colombia through Sat night, pulsing to minimal
    gale force tonight. Fresh to strong E trades will persist in the
    Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola into tonight as well. A
    cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will reach the NW
    Caribbean Fri night and dissipate Sat. Moderate to fresh E trades
    are expected elsewhere through Sat. Looking ahead, building high
    pressure to the north will strengthen the E trades across the
    central/E Caribbean and tropical N Atlantic Sun and Mon.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    The subtropical ridge centered near the NW Bahamas sustains
    moderate NE to E winds south of 22N and west of 65W, with fresh
    winds possible near the Windward Passage entrance. Seas in these
    waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, light to gentle flow
    prevails.

    A very broad area of surface troughing extends over the central
    Atlantic, along 25N between 34W and 44W. Fresh to strong winds
    are noted north of the trough according to latest scatterometer
    data. Moderate seas prevail in this area along with scattered
    showers. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are
    noted elsewhere.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure will shift east
    through tonight, allowing SW winds to increase up to strong or
    near-gale between NE Florida and Bermuda ahead of an approaching
    cold front. The cold front will move off the NE Florida coast
    Fri afternoon and reach from 31N60W to S Florida Sat morning.
    Looking ahead, the front will lift northward as a warm front Sun
    morning, ahead of another cold front moving off the NE Florida
    coast Sun night. The second cold front will reach from 31N74W to
    the Florida Straits by Mon morning.

    $$
    ERA