NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

• NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 212300
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  0005 UTC Sun May 22 2022
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  2150 UTC.
  
  ...SPECIAL FEATURES...
  
  Heavy Rainfall over Central America and SE Mexico: A broad area
  of low pressure centered just off the Pacific coast of eastern El
  Salvador has produced periods of heavy rain during the past 24
  hours (20/1800 UTC to 21/1800 UTC) over portions of northern
  Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, coastal El Salvador and southern
  Guatemala, as indicated by a 24-hr infrared satellite loop. The
  current satellite imagery shows scattered to locally numerous moderate
  to strong convection extending from central Guatemala east and
  southeastward across Honduras, Nicaragua, and covering much of the
  southwest Caribbean south of 15N and west of 80W. Other scattered
  moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring over land
  across Costa Rica. Over the next 4 days or so (through Wed 25
  May), additional periods of moderate to heavy rain, with locally
  heavy to extreme rain, are expected over portions of western
  Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, southern Honduras, El Salvador,
  southern Guatemala and the Mexican state of Chiapas. There is
  potential for localized areas of flash flooding and mudslides,
  especially across mountainous terrain. This is a slow moving
  weather system. High atmospheric moisture content is expected over
  the area for the next several days. Please refer to products
  issued by your local or national meteorological agency for more
  information.
  
  ...TROPICAL WAVES...
  
  A tropical wave is in the Atlantic with axis along 56W-57W, from
  14N southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
  convection is noted near the ITCZ from 05N-09N between 50W-58W.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough extends from the Senegal coast near 14N16.5W
  to 06N26W. The ITCZ continues from 06N26W to 04.5N35W to 07N54W.
  Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from
  03.5N-101N between the coast of Africa and 20W, while scattered
  moderate to strong is noted further west, from 05N to 07N between
  20W and 29W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of the
  ITCZ from 06N to 09.5N between 36W and 50W.
  
  GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  An upper-level trough extends from Mississippi southward to the
  southeast Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level diffluence on the east side
  of the upper trough is supporting numerous moderate and scattered
  strong convection covering the NE Gulf of Mexico, north of 25N
  and east of 90W. Gusty winds and frequent lightning are occurring
  with these thunderstorms. GOES-16 infrared imagery depicts cloud
  tops as cold as -76 deg C. A recent satellite altimeter pass from
  21/1630 UTC showed seas of 7 to 8 ft off the coast of central
  Texas. Fresh SE winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere across
  the basin W of 90W, while fresh to strong winds are across much of
  the eastern Gulf between 85W and 90W, where seas are estimated to
  be 7-9 ft. Smoke from agricultural fires over Mexico continues to
  spread northward and is producing hazy skies across the western
  Gulf west of 93W off Mexico and southern Texas.
  
  For the forecast, the area of strong thunderstorms over the NE
  Gulf of Mexico is expected to linger into the evening hours and slowly
  migrating W toward the north-central Gulf. Fresh to strong
  southeast winds along with rough seas will prevail from the
  south-central Gulf to the northwest Gulf into Sun between high
  pressure over the western Atlantic and broad low pressure over
  southern Mexico and northern Central America. Winds and seas will
  diminish Sun into Mon as the low pressure weakens, except for
  pulses of fresh to strong winds off the north coast of the Yucatan
  Peninsula, mainly at night. Looking ahead, a ridge will build
  from the western Atlantic across the northern Gulf through mid-
  week, supporting fresh southeast return flow over the western
  Gulf.
  
  CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  The eastern periphery of a broad cyclonic circulation over
  Central America, combined with the east Pacific monsoon trough, is
  combining to produce scattered to numerous deep convection across
  the southwest Caribbean, described above. Cloudiness with
  possible isolated showers prevails elsewhere over the NW Caribbean
  to the west of Jamaica. Mainly fair weather is found over the
  eastern and central Caribbean, east of 77W, due to subsidence from
  mid-level ridging over the area. A recent ASCAT satellite data
  pass showed fresh to strong E to SE trades over much of the
  central and western Caribbean. Moderate E trades cover the eastern
  basin. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are likely occurring over the far NW
  Caribbean to the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 7-10 ft are over the
  waters in between Colombia and Jamaica, while 3-5 ft seas prevail
  across the E basin.
  
  For the forecast, broad low pressure over Central America will
  persist through Sun as high pressure builds over the western
  Atlantic. This pattern will support fresh to strong east to
  southeast winds and rough seas over the central and northwest
  Caribbean through Sun. Winds and seas will start to diminish
  across the basin early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes.
  
  ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  A surface ridge extends east to west from a 1027 mb high pressure
  near 33N28W to 27N44W, while a second high of 1027 mb is centered
  near 32N69W and extends to the coast of Georgia. This ridge is
  maintaining light to gentle winds north of 24N between 40W-75W,
  with 3-4 ft seas. A recent ASCAT satellite wind data pass shows
  moderate to fresh SE winds from north of Hispaniola through the
  Old Bahama Channel to South Florida. Currently, seas near the
  Windward Passage are likely 4 to 5 ft, while 3 to 4 ft seas
  prevail over the remainder of the western Atlantic. A couple of
  weak surface troughs over the central Atlantic are inducing some
  scattered showers north of 23N between 38W-53W. Recent ASCAT data
  showed fresh trades north of the ITCZ to 16N between 40W and 60W,
  where seas are likely 5 to 7 ft. Moderate trades and 5-6 ft seas
  are elsewhere from the ITCZ to 20N between 30W- 60W. Fresh NNE
  winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail north of 20N between the coast of
  Africa and 21W.
  
  For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure ridge along 32N
  will strengthen some through the weekend, then weaken next week.
  The associated pressure gradient will allow for mainly gentle to
  moderate winds across the region through the period, except for
  pulsing moderate to fresh east winds north of Hispaniola through
  late Sun. Moderate northeast swell may impact the waters east of
  60W and north of 25N Sun through Tue. The swell is expected to
  subside Tue night into Wed.
  
  $$
  Stripling