Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 220523
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Beta, located over the Texas coast, on Hurricane Teddy,
    located about 600 miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia, and has
    re-initiated advisories on regenerated Tropical Storm Paulette,
    located about 300 miles south-southeast of the Azores.

    Showers and thunderstorms extending from the Bahamas westward
    through the Straits of Florida and into the southeastern Gulf of
    Mexico are associated with a frontal system. This system is
    forecast to move slowly southward over Cuba during the next couple
    of days, and then move back northward on Thursday through Saturday.
    Environmental conditions could be marginally conducive for some
    slight development over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this
    week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
    possible over portions of Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

    &&

    Public Advisories on Paulette are issued under WMO header WTNT31
    KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on
    Paulette are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS
    header MIATCMAT1.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 221019
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Tue Sep 22 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0945 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Tropical Storm Beta has moved inland early this morning and is
    centered near 28.8N 96.7W at 22/0900 UTC or 30 nm NNW of Port
    Oconnor Texas moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central
    pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
    gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends out 150 nm
    from the center in the E semicircle. Beta is expected to stall
    today and tonight, while gradually weakening to a tropical
    depression. Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings remain in
    effect for portions of the NW Gulf Coast. Please read the latest
    NHC Public Advisory at
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/
    Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
    details.

    Hurricane Teddy is centered near 38.4N 62.4W at 22/0900 UTC or
    380 nm S of Halifax Nova Scotia moving NNW at 24 kt. Estimated
    minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
    is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong
    convection extends outward 360 nm from the center in the northern
    semicircle...and 90 nm in the SW quadrant. Teddy will move over
    Nova Scotia Wed morning then cross the Gulf of St. Lawrence
    through Wed night. Teddy should weaken below hurricane strength
    and become extratropical on Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public
    Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the
    Forecast Advisory at
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

    Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 34.7N 23.7W at 22/0900
    UTC or 260 nm SE of the Azores moving ENE at 15 kt. Estimated
    minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind
    speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection
    is noted within about 60 nm of the center in all quadrants.
    Paulette will continue moving ENE into Wed before stalling Wed
    night. Weakening is forecast and Paulette is likely to become
    post-tropical Wed or Tue. Please read the latest NHC Public
    Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the
    Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml
    for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is located along 20W S of 17N, moving W at 10 to
    15 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave.

    A weak tropical wave extends along 32W S of 18N, moving W at 10 to
    15 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 12N16W
    to 08N28W. The ITCZ is from 06N33W to 05N39W. No significant
    convection is occurring along these features.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Please see the Special Features section above for further details
    on Tropical Storm Beta inland over Texas.

    As of 22/0900 UTC. A cold front has now stalled over the eastern
    and central Gulf from 22N81W to 29N92W. Scattered moderate
    convection is near the front. North of the front over the NE Gulf,
    strong NE winds prevail. These winds will gradually decrease
    to fresh later today and tonight. Gentle winds prevail over the
    remainder of the Gulf of Mexico south of the front. In the far
    western Gulf, gentle winds prevail south of 25.5N.

    After weakening to a tropical depression later today or tonight,
    Beta will turn NE and track along the TX coast for the next
    several days, eventually moving into Louisiana. Impacts from Beta
    will remain confined to nearshore coastal waters of Texas and
    Louisiana. A stationary front will remain stretched from the
    central to southeast Gulf through Thu. Low pressure may form along
    this frontal boundary in the southeast Gulf later this week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Mainly fair weather conditions prevail across the basin under the
    influence of mid level high pressure supporting dry air
    subsidence. Showers and thunderstorms previously near Cuba have
    dissipated. Scattered moderate convection S of 11N, along the
    Panama and Colombia coasts, is associated with the east Pacific
    monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail.

    Swell associated with Hurricane Teddy moving away in the north
    Atlantic as well as generated by a cold front currently extending
    along 22N W of 61W will impact much of the Atlantic passages
    beginning Tue night and continuing through at least Thu night.
    Mainly gentle to moderate trade winds will dominate the basin
    through Thu night. Across the remainder of the Caribbean, gentle
    to moderate trades will prevail.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends from 31N61W to 22N77W. Scattered moderate
    isolated strong convection is along the front. Strong NE winds
    area located to the N and W of the front, including the Bahamas.
    Ahead of the front, strong S winds are occurring N of 28N. A
    weak 1010 mb low near 14N50W is along a NE-SW surface trough that
    extends from 17N46W to 10N54W. Another surface trough is from
    22N40W to 16N41W. A broad area of moderate, disorganized
    convection resides in the vicinity of these features from 11N to
    24N between 39N and 49W.

    Swell generated by Hurricane Teddy, moving farther north of the
    area toward Atlantic Canada, and a cold front that is slowing
    over the southeastern waters will continue to impact the waters
    through at least Thu night. In the wake of the front, high
    pressure building into the Mid- Atlantic U.S. will bring fresh to
    strong winds to areas N of the Bahamas and off the Florida coast
    into tonight.

    $$
    KONARIK