NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

• NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 052115
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  0005 UTC Thu May 6 2021
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  2100 UTC.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of western Africa
  near 09N14W to 03N21W to 00N34W. The ITCZ begins near 00N34W and
  continues to 01N42W to near 03N50W. Scattered moderate to
  isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 08N E of 24W.
  
  GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  A cold front extends from near Mobile, Alabama, to near Tampico,
  Mexico. Thunderstorms are ahead of the front, within about 90 nm
  of the coast of the Florida Panhandle. A surface trough remains in
  the western Gulf, ahead of the cold front, from 28N91W to 18N93W,
  but the low pressure previously along the trough has dissipated.
  Hazy sky conditions associated with agricultural fires over
  southern Mexico are reducing visibilities across the SW Gulf of
  Mexico. Hazy skies and areas of smoke are likely to continue for
  several more days. Across the remainder of the Gulf basin,
  generally fair weather prevails with gentle to moderate southerly winds.
  
  The cold front will become stationary over the northern Gulf this
  evening. High pressure building in behind it will act to push the
  eastern part of the front to the far eastern Gulf by early Fri
  evening. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are expected in the
  western and central Gulf this weekend and into early next week as
  the high pressure shifts eastward.
  
  CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  Generally moderate to locally fresh easterly trades cover the
  majority of the basin, except fresh to strong SE winds are
  likely still continuing north of Honduras in the NW Caribbean,
  including the Gulf of Honduras. Satellite imagery shows a line of
  moderate convection, associated with the monsoon trough that
  extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean across Panama to northern
  Colombia, continues over the southwest Caribbean S of 11N.
  
  A ridge north of the area will support moderate to occasionally
  fresh trade winds over much of the basin through Sat. Stronger
  trades are likely in the central Caribbean on Sun and into early
  next week as high pressure builds to the north. Fresh to strong
  southeast winds in the NW Caribbean, including Gulf of Honduras,
  will diminish Thu. Hazy sky conditions and areas of smoke due to
  agricultural fires in Central America are expected to continue
  through the end of the week.
  
  ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  A broad ridge extends across the entire subtropical Atlantic,
  anchored by high pressure centers analyzed near 35N23W, 33N38W,
  and a 1024 mb high near 27N61W. This ridge is responsible
  for a large, expansive area of gentle to moderate winds, 2 to 4
  ft seas, and fair weather across most of the central and western
  Atlantic Ocean, north of 15N-20N, east of 50W. Moderate to fresh
  trade winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail across the waters south
  of 15N-20N. The only other surface feature of note is a trough
  over the eastern Atlantic that extends from 31N32W to 26N35W.
  Convection previously associated with this feature dissipated this
  afternoon.
  
  The ridge along 27N will support gentle to moderate winds across
  most of the region through tonight. A cold front will move over
  the northwest waters Thu night, and reach from 31N76W to the
  Straits of Florida Fri morning. The northern part of the front
  will continue eastward across the northern forecast waters through
  Sat night while weakening. A high pressure ridge will build along
  31N in the wake of the front through Sun night. The ridge will
  shift eastward Mon as another cold front approaches the far NW
  waters.
  
  $$
  KONARIK