Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 201716
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Reinhart
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    981
    AXNT20 KNHC 202208
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Sun Jul 21 2024

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2200 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 31W from 20N southward,
    and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is
    noted near this tropical wave.

    A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 77W from eastern Cuba
    and Jamaica southward into eastern Panama. It is moving westward
    at near 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring
    between Jamaica and eastern Cuba.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Mauritania near 19N16W, then extends southwestward to 09N50W. An
    ITCZ continues westward from 09N50W to 10N60W. Saharan dust is
    suppressing any significant convection.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface trough reaches across the northwest Gulf from Vermilion
    Bay, Louisiana, to off South Padre Island, Texas. Scattered
    showers and thunderstorms are active west of the trough, over much
    of the northern Gulf. The Atlantic ridge extends westward across
    Florida into the eastern Gulf. This pattern is supporting light to
    gentle breezes and slight seas across the basin.

    For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place across the Gulf
    waters over the next several days. It will support gentle to
    locally moderate E to SE winds and slight seas. Pulsing moderate
    to fresh winds are expected near and to the northwest of the
    Yucatan Peninsula during the evening and night hours due to local
    effects. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
    expected over the Straits of Florida Sun night as a tropical wave
    passes to the south.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The Atlantic high pressure is building over the eastern Caribbean
    following through tropical wave that extends from Jamaica to
    eastern Panama. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong trade
    winds off northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia. Moderate to
    fresh trade winds are noted elsewhere over the eastern and central
    Caribbean. Gentle to moderate E winds are noted elsewhere over the
    basin. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3
    to 5 ft elsewhere.

    For the forecast, the tropical wave will move through the western
    Caribbean tonight through Mon afternoon. High pressure from the
    central Atlantic will continue to build in its wake, with
    fresh to strong winds and building seas, possibly peaking to 10
    ft over the south-central Caribbean on Mon. The trade winds and
    associated seas will diminish slightly on Tue, then increase
    across the eastern and central Caribbean for the remainder of the
    forecast period.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    An upper-level trough reaches southwestward from a low southeast
    of Bermuda near 30N66W across the central Bahamas to central
    Cuba. Divergent winds related these features are enhancing
    scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along an associated
    surface trough moving through the southern Bahamas and
    Turks/Caicos Islands. At the surface, the pattern is dominated by
    1028 mb high pressure centered near 32N57W. The gradient between
    the high pressure and the surface trough is supporting fresh to
    strong E to SE winds on the north coast of Hispaniola. Gentle to
    moderate E to SE winds are noted elsewhere across the basin west
    of 35W. Combined seas are 6 to 8 ft in E swell across Atlantic
    waters from 10N to 25N between 50W and 75W, 4 to 6 ft elsewhere
    west of 35W. Gentle to moderate NE winds persist east of 35W,
    except for fresh to strong winds off northwest Africa and the
    Canary Islands, with mostly 4 to 6 ft combined seas.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic surface ridge will
    continue to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the
    weekend, then lift north to near 30N early next week. The related
    pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh easterly winds
    south of 26N, with winds pulsing to strong during the late
    afternoons and evenings off the northern coast of Hispaniola into
    next week. Numerous thunderstorms over the waters south of 25N
    between 68W and 74W are associated with an upper-level low and a
    surface trough while the northern portion of a tropical wave is
    over eastern Cuba. These features along with the thunderstorm
    activity will continue to shift westward reaching the waters
    between the Bahamas and Cuba, including the Straits of Florida
    late Sun into Mon. Some of the thunderstorms may produce strong
    gusty winds and rough seas.

    $$
    Christensen