NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

• NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 021705
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1805 UTC Thu Feb 2 2023
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  1630 UTC.
  
  ...SPECIAL FEATURES...
  
  Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between the
  subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressure
  over northern Colombia will support pulsing minimal gale force
  winds off the coast of Colombia tonight. Seas will peak at 10
  to 12 ft with the strongest winds.
  
  Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Expect winds to gale force along
  with very rough seas off the coast of Veracruz from early Fri
  morning through Fri evening, following a cold front sweeping
  across the Gulf.
  
  Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
  National Hurricane Center at
  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N12W
  to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01S45W. Scattered
  moderate convection is evident S of 06N between 12W-50W.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf waters
  offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Please see the Special Features
  section above for more details.
  
  A stationary front extends from near Panama City, Florida to a
  1016 mb low pressure in the northwest Gulf near 28N94W, then
  southward to 20N96W. Moderate to fresh winds are evident to the
  north and west of the front/low, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Gentle to
  moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft wave heights are evident elsewhere.
  
  For the forecast, the low pressure over the NW Gulf will move to
  the Carolinas through tonight. A trailing cold front will sweep
  across the Gulf through Fri night. Winds to gale force and very
  rough seas will follow the front over the far SW Gulf off the
  coast of Veracruz starting early Fri morning and persist through
  the remainder of the day. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to
  rough seas will follow elsewhere through Fri. Winds and seas will
  diminish from west to east through Sat night across the Gulf as
  high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Looking ahead,
  expect fresh S return flow across the NW Gulf on Mon.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
  Please see the Special Features section above for more details.
  
  The subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean Sea sustains fresh
  to strong easterly trade winds across the Windward Passage and
  the central Caribbean Sea. The strongest winds are occurring off
  the higher coastal terrain of Colombia, with 8 to 10 ft seas.
  Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas
  are noted elsewhere.
  
  For the forecast, the strong to near-gale NE winds will persist
  off the coast of Colombia through Sat night, pulsing to minimal
  gale force tonight. Fresh to strong E trades will persist in the
  Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola into tonight as well. A
  cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will reach the NW
  Caribbean Fri night and dissipate Sat. Moderate to fresh E trades
  are expected elsewhere through Sat. Looking ahead, building high
  pressure to the north will strengthen the E trades across the
  central/E Caribbean and tropical N Atlantic Sun and Mon.
  
  ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  The subtropical ridge centered near the NW Bahamas sustains
  moderate NE to E winds south of 22N and west of 65W, with fresh
  winds possible near the Windward Passage entrance. Seas in these
  waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, light to gentle flow
  prevails.
  
  A very broad area of surface troughing extends over the central
  Atlantic, along 25N between 34W and 44W. Fresh to strong winds
  are noted north of the trough according to latest scatterometer
  data. Moderate seas prevail in this area along with scattered
  showers. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are
  noted elsewhere.
  
  For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure will shift east
  through tonight, allowing SW winds to increase up to strong or
  near-gale between NE Florida and Bermuda ahead of an approaching
  cold front. The cold front will move off the NE Florida coast
  Fri afternoon and reach from 31N60W to S Florida Sat morning.
  Looking ahead, the front will lift northward as a warm front Sun
  morning, ahead of another cold front moving off the NE Florida
  coast Sun night. The second cold front will reach from 31N74W to
  the Florida Straits by Mon morning.
  
  $$
  ERA