NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

• NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 052233
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  0005 UTC Fri Mar 5 2021
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  2230 UTC.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N16W
  to 02N26W. The ITCZ continues from 02N61W to the coast of Brazil
  near 01S51W. Scattered showers are noted within 240 nm on either
  sides of the ITCZ mainly west of 30W.
  
  GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  Weather conditions remain quiet across the Gulf this evening, as
  a weak surface ridge persists across the region. The weak
  pressure gradient is allowing winds to remain gentle to moderate,
  which is keeping seas generally 2-3 ft across most of the area.
  No significant convection is evident from radar or satellite data.
  
  A low pressure system is expected develop over the NW Gulf
  tonight, then deepen and move E-SE across the Gulf through Sat
  evening. High pressure building behind the front will support
  strong east winds across the eastern Gulf Sat night through late
  Tue.
  
  CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  The tail end of a frontal boundary remains stalled over the
  northwestern Caribbean Sea from eastern Cuba to the Yucatan
  Peninsula. Scattered showers are possible along the boundary, but
  no convection is occurring at the moment due to widespread dry
  air in the mid- and upper-levels. Scatterometer data depicts
  moderate northerly winds just north of the front, while light to
  gentle winds prevail south of the front. Gentle to moderate
  easterly winds prevail elsewhere, with highest winds noted within
  90 nm north of the Colombia coast. Scattered showers are also
  possible over the eastern Caribbean Sea near a weak surface
  trough. Seas range 2-5 ft with upwards of 7 ft north of
  Colombia.
  
  The stationary front will dissipate through Sat. Fresh to
  occasionally strong winds will pulse in the southern Caribbean
  through Sun, with gentle to moderate winds expected elsewhere. A
  cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean late Sat night
  through Sun, and gradually stall from Hispaniola to Honduras
  Tue. Strong NE winds and building seas will follow the front
  over the western Caribbean.
  
  Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is
  expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in
  association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian
  Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals
  of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW
  Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over
  northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please
  refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for
  more details.
  
  ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  A cold front passes through 31N58W to 24N68W and then becomes
  stationary to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers are noted along
  and ahead of the front N of 23N. Seas are 5-8 ft near the front
  with moderate north winds behind it and fresh to strong SW winds
  ahead of it.
  
  The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the
  influence of strong high pressure centered near the Azores. The
  associated ridge covers the waters between the Canary Islands and
  the NE Caribbean. Strong westerly winds are transporting upper
  level moisture from the deep tropics near South America to
  western Africa, including the Cabo Verde Islands.
  
  The cold front will weaken and stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba
  early Sat. Northerly winds will follow the front, then shift
  from the east Sat, increasing north of 27N late Sat. A developing
  low pressure system will move rapidly from central Florida to
  Bermuda Sat night through Sun night, accompanied by strong to
  near-gale force winds. The low will drag a cold front across the
  region through early next week. High pressure will build north of
  27N by Mon, supporting strong NE winds south of 27N through Tue
  night.
  
  $$
  ERA/JPC