Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic

    949
    ABNT20 KNHC 212016
    TWOAT

    Special Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    420 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Special outlook to update probabilities on the disturbance east of
    the Windward Islands.

    A low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is located
    about 600 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
    Although the showers and thunderstorms have decreased this
    afternoon, this system is still showing signs of organization. The
    environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow
    development, and a tropical depression could form early next week
    while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the
    low latitudes of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

    Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a
    well-defined low pressure system located about 500 miles east of the
    Windward Islands has become better organized over the past few
    hours, and a tropical depression could form later tonight or
    Saturday. Strong upper-level winds and dry air are likely to
    prevent additional development of this system by late this weekend
    while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at around 10 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

    A broad area of low pressure located about 100 miles southeast
    of Bermuda is producing minimal shower activity. Development of
    this system is not expected during the next couple of days due to
    dry air and strong upper-level winds. However, environmental
    conditions could become more conducive for slow development when the
    system moves over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean during the early
    and middle part of next week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

    A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop tonight
    or on Saturday over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean midway
    between Bermuda and the Azores. Conditions are expected to be
    conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or tropical
    characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely
    to form late this weekend or early next week while the low meanders
    over the central Atlantic Ocean.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky

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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    938
    AXNT20 KNHC 211758
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    158 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1715 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    Showers and thunderstorms about 520 nm SSE of the Cabo Verde
    Islands are showing some signs of organization. This activity is
    associated with a tropical wave, analyzed along 17W from 03N-16N.
    An ASCAT pass from around 10Z this morning shows a partially
    closed low-level circulation near 07N18W with winds of 25-30 kt
    in the eastern semicircle. Visible and IR satellite images depict
    a coherent cluster of convection with a banding pattern from 04N-
    10N, between 16W-23W, where numerous moderate and isolated strong
    convection is noted. The environment is forecast to be conducive
    for slow development, and a tropical depression could form early
    next week while the system moves west around 15 kt across the low
    latitudes of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The
    system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within the
    next 48 hours.

    The tropical wave that was previously along 26W/27W has been
    relocated to 36W from 04N-16N and is moving west at 10-15 kt. The
    wave corresponds nicely with a maximum in TPW imagery. Model
    analyses depict an associated 700 mb trough along 39W, or just
    ahead of the wave axis. Isolated showers are noted within 120 nm
    of the wave axis from 09N-13N. Little change is expected with this
    wave over the next 24-48 hours.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 52W between
    07N-17N moving W around 10 kt. The wave runs through a 1012 mb
    low near 12N52W, or about 435 nm east of the Windward Islands.
    Visible imagery shows an exposed low-level center due to moderate
    to strong westerly wind shear. Scattered moderate convection is
    limited to the eastern semicircle from 10N-15N, between 48W-52W.
    The combination of dry mid-level air and strong upper-level winds
    is expected to hinder any further development of the low while it
    moves WNW.

    A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has been relocated to 78W/79W
    based on surface observations. This location is a little to the
    west of the analysis from 6 hours ago, which had it along 74W.
    Movement is estimated to be westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered
    showers are noted south of Jamaica from 16N-18N between 76W-80W. A
    maximum in TPW is noted just east of the wave axis.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
    10N14W to 07N18W to 07N27W. The ITCZ continues from 07N27W to
    08N40W to 10N56W to NE Venezuela. Other than convection
    associated with the tropical waves, isolated weak to moderate
    convection is located within 60 nm south and 150 nm north of the
    ITCZ between 40W-47W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted
    over NE Venezuela as well as Trinidad and Tobago.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    An upper-level cyclonic circulation is moving slowly westward
    over the far eastern Gulf and the west coast of Florida. Satellite
    imagery and NWS Doppler Radar indicate scattered showers and
    thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf, mainly from 24N-29N, between
    81W-87W, including portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida
    Peninsula.

    A ridge extends from a high pressure over the eastern U.S. to the
    northern Gulf of Mexico. The ridge will support gentle to moderate
    easterly winds and seas 3 ft or less across most of the Gulf of
    Mexico through the middle of next week. It is possible that a
    typical nocturnal surface trough, that will be moving westward
    across the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico, may produce
    locally fresh winds through Sat.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A tropical wave is moving across the Central Caribbean Sea. Please
    see the Tropical Waves section for more details.

    The eastern Pacific monsoon trough combined with diffluence aloft
    is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms over
    portions of Costa Rica, Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Plenty of
    moisture will persist over the southwest Caribbean through
    Saturday as the tropical wave, currently along 78W/79W, reaches
    the area and moves inland into central America late Sat or early
    Sun.

    The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and
    the lower pressure near the central Caribbean tropical wave will
    support fresh trades today. Winds will diminish over most of the
    Caribbean Sea this weekend.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Currently, there are three tropical waves between the west coast
    of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please see the Tropical Waves
    section for more details.

    A cold front extends from a 1010 mb low just SE of Bermuda and
    enters the forecast area near 31N64W and extends westward to
    28N70W to the east coast of FL near Cape Canaveral. Isolated
    showers are noted along the frontal boundary. The front will drift
    slightly southward today, then dissipate by Saturday morning. The
    low is currently producing moderate to fresh winds north of 28N
    between 60W-65W. The low is expected to drift south and then west
    over the forecast area between 60W-70W while weakening.

    The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence
    of a ridge, anchored by a 1022 mb surface high located W of the
    Madeiras Islands near 34N23.5W.

    Looking ahead, a non-tropical low is forecast to develop tonight
    or on Saturday to the north of the forecast area about midway
    between Bermuda and the Azores. Conditions are expected to be
    conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or tropical
    characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is expected
    to form late this weekend or early next week while the low
    meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean. There is a low chance of
    development within the next 48 hours but a high chance of
    development within 5 days.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    Hagen/GR