Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 250536
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Active Systems:
    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Ian, located over the western Caribbean Sea, on Tropical
    Storm Gaston, located near the western Azores, and on Tropical
    Depression Hermine, located over the far eastern Atlantic.

    Central Tropical Atlantic:
    An area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the
    Cabo Verde Islands is producing minimal shower activity. Any
    development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves
    very little through the early portion of next week. Environmental
    conditions could become marginally more conducive for development by
    the middle portion of next week, when the system is forecast to
    begin moving slowly northward.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 250606
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0605 UTC Sun Sep 25 2022

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0500 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    IAN...

    Tropical Storm Ian is centered near 14.7N 77.7W at 25/0300 UTC or
    345 nm SE of Grand Cayman, and moving W at 11 kt. Estimated
    minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
    45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and seas are peaking at 8 to 10 ft
    near and just NE of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated
    strong convection is noted within 80 nm of the center. Ian is
    expected to gradually turn toward the NW Sun, then NNW on Mon with
    little change in forward speed. More rapid intensification is
    forecast, Ian should reach hurricane strengthen SW of Jamaica on
    Sun before passing W of the Cayman Islands Mon. Ian is forecast to
    become a major hurricane early Tue as it approaches the western
    tip of Cuba, then continue into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through
    mid week. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall over Jamaica,
    the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, which can cause flash
    flooding, and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
    Expect life- threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds in
    portions of western Cuba beginning late Mon. Regardless of Ian’s
    exact track, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-
    force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida
    and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week, and
    residents in Florida should ensure they have their hurricane plan
    in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and closely
    monitor updates to the forecast.

    Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
    Hurricane Center at website
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and the latest NHC
    Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
    more details.

    FIONA...

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona is centered near 49N60W at 25/0430
    UTC and moving N at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
    963 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
    Fiona is forecast to continue to affect portions of Atlantic
    Canada through early Sunday, and significant impacts from high
    winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected. Large swells
    generated by Fiona are expected to cause life-threatening surf
    and rip current conditions along the coast of the northeast United
    States, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of
    days.

    Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean
    Prediction Center at website
    https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the latest
    Tropical Cyclone Information Statement issued by Environment
    Canada at www.weather.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html for more
    details.

    GASTON...

    Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 38.6N 33.4W at 25/0300 UTC
    or 220 nm W of Faial Island in the central Azores, and moving W
    at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum
    sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and seas are
    peaking at 18 to 20 ft near and NE of the center. Gaston will
    continue to move west though Sun, then turns toward the WSW Mon.
    Tropical storm conditions will continue across the western Azores
    through Sun morning before improving Sun afternoon as Gaston moves
    away from the islands. Heavy rainfall over the western and
    central Azores should begin to diminish Sun afternoon. This
    rainfall may result in landslides and areas of flooding.

    Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean
    Prediction Center at website
    https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the latest NHC
    Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
    more details.

    HERMINE...

    Tropical Depression Hermine is centered near 22.9N 20.3W at
    25/0300 UTC or 465 nm NNE of the Cabo Verde Islands, and moving N
    at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
    sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and seas are
    peaking at 8 to 10 ft near and NE of the center. Scattered showers
    and thunderstorms are occurring N and NE of the center from 24N
    to 27N between 16W and 21W. A northward motion will continue over
    the next day or two before turning toward WNW. Hermine is expected
    to continue to weaken, and become a remnant low later Sun.

    Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
    Meteo-France at website http://weather/gmdss.org/ll.html and the
    latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
    www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    There are no tropical waves present based on the latest analysis.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    A monsoon trough extends west-southwestward from northeast of the
    Cabo Verde Islands at 18N21W through a 1009 mb low centered near
    12N37W to 12N39W. An ITCZ then continues from 12N39W to 13N55W.
    Scattered moderate convection is noted near the low and monsoon
    trough from 10N to 16N between 31W and 39W, and also south of the
    ITCZ from 10N to 12N between 51W and 53W. Numerous moderate to
    isolated strong convection is flaring up southeast of the monsoon
    trough near the Guinea-Bissau/Guinea coast.

    The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
    isolated thunderstorms over Panama and adjacent Caribbean waters.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    Please refer to the Special Features section above on Tropical
    Storm Ian, which is anticipated to impact the eastern Gulf in the
    middle of next week.

    A surface trough is producing isolated thunderstorms at the east-
    central Gulf. A 1016 mb high pressure is centered near the
    north-central Gulf, supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 1
    to 2 ft. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and 2 to 3 ft seas
    prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

    For the forecast, conditions will begin to deteriorate across the
    eastern and central Gulf of Mexico by Tue as Ian moves northward
    from Cuba as a major hurricane. Residents along the Florida west
    coast and Big Band area need to monitor this system closely and
    review your hurricane preparedness plan.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please refer to the Special Features section above on Tropical
    Storm (T.S.) Ian moving across the basin.

    Convergent easterly winds north of T.S. Ian are triggering
    scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Jamaica and
    south of Haiti. Convergent southerly winds are coupling with
    divergent flow aloft to generate numerous heavy showers and
    scattered thunderstorms over the south-central basin, including
    northern Colombia and northwestern Venezuela.

    Outside the main impacts of T.S. Ian across the central
    Caribbean, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds with 3 to 6 ft
    seas are present across the eastern, north-central and south-
    central basin. Gentle to moderate NNE to NE winds and seas at 2 to
    4 ft exist over the northwestern basin, while light to gentle
    winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the southwester basin.

    For the forecast, T.S. Ian will move to 15.3N 79.3W Sun morning,
    strengthen to a hurricane near 16.6N 81.0W Sun evening, then reach
    18.3N 82.5W Mon morning. Hurricane Ian will be near 20.1N 83.7W
    Mon evening, 22.0N 84.5W Tue morning, and 23.9N 84.9W Tue evening.
    Ian will is forecast to intensify more rapidly as it moves
    across the northwestern basin Sun through Mon. Heavy rainfall and
    hazardous marine conditions will impact waters near Jamaica, the
    Cayman Islands, and Cuba.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please refer to the Special Features section above on Post-
    tropical Cyclone Fiona, Tropical Storms Gaston and Tropical
    Depression Hermine in the Atlantic Basin.

    A weakening stationary front curves west-southwestward from
    east of Bermuda across 31N58W and the northwest Bahamas to
    southern Florida. Isolated thunderstorms are seen along and up to
    40 nm along either side of the front. Convergent southerly winds
    farther south of the front are causing scattered showers and
    isolated thunderstorms from 24N to 26N between 60W and 71W.
    Convergent trades are creating scattered showers and thunderstorms
    from eastern Cuba to the southeast Bahamas. Refer to the Monsoon
    Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the basin.

    Outside the main influence of Tropical Depression Hermine, gentle
    to moderate ENE to SE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft in northerly
    swell are present near and east of the stationary front, north of
    25N between 44W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Moderate to fresh
    with locally strong NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are found
    near the Canary Islands north of 24N between the Western Sahara
    coast and 27W. The Atlantic ridge is sustaining gentle to moderate
    ENE to E trades with 4 to 6 ft seas north of 15N between 27W and
    the 44W/Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly
    winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the
    Atlantic Basin.

    For the forecast west of 55W, northerly swell N of 26N and W of
    55W will gradually subside during the beginning of next week.
    Tropical Storm Ian is forecast to be a major hurricane at the
    eastern Gulf of Mexico Tue through Wed. Impacts from Ian may
    affect Atlantic waters offshore Florida after midweek.

    $$

    Chan