Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 221118
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Latto
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 221024
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Fri Oct 22 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1020 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W, from 16 southward,
    moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to strong
    convection is within 180 nm on either side of the tropical wave
    from 06N to 10N between 40W to 46W.

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W, from 16N southward,
    moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers are noted from
    09N to 13N between 54W and 60W.

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W, from 21N southward,
    moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate
    to locally strong is within 180 nm to the west of the tropical
    wave from 16N to the Dominican Republic.

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W, from 21N southward,
    moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate
    to isolated strong is south of 12N between 76W to 79W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
    near 10N14W, to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W to 02N39W.
    Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N from 13W to 24W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface ridge passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 31N75W,
    through northern Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico,
    toward NE Mexico/the deep south of Texas. Scattered moderate
    convection has developed during the overnight hours over the Bay
    of Campeche and in the SE Gulf of Mexico with moderate to fresh
    winds. Gentle to moderate winds cover the remainder of the basin.
    The sea heights are in the range of 3 to 4 ft from 92W eastward,
    and in the range of 1 to 3 feet elsewhere.

    Weak high pressure will dominate into early next week, although a
    stalling cold front will skirt across the NE Gulf this weekend.
    Moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected across the central
    and eastern Gulf through the weekend, otherwise gentle to moderate
    winds will prevail early next week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean
    Sea from 70W westward.

    Fresh to strong winds are to the east of the Lesser Antilles.
    The sea heights range from 5 to 7 feet. Gentle to moderate trade
    winds are generally in the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range
    from 3 feet to 5 feet from 18N southward from 80W eastward, from
    3 to 4 feet in the Yucatan Channel, and from 1 to 3 feet elsewhere.

    High pressure N of the area will support fresh to locally strong
    trades E of the Windward Islands through the weekend becoming
    moderate across the central Caribbean early next week. During this
    period, moderate to fresh winds are expected over the south-
    central Caribbean, with winds reaching locally strong in the
    Venezuela basin. Gentle to moderate tradewinds will prevail
    elsewhere.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center that
    is near 34N53W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
    Atlantic Ocean northward, from 50W westward. Broad surface
    anticyclonic wind flow also is from 30N northward between 20W and
    40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N to 31N
    between 51W to 68W.

    Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are N of the 25N61W to 23N71W
    surface trough, particularly between 60W and 70W, with sea heights
    ranging from 6 to 7 feet. Moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds
    are to the north of the ITCZ. The sea heights range from 4 to 6
    feet, generally. The exception is the range from 6 to 9 feet, to
    the west of the Canary Islands, in NW swell.

    The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
    Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
    Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
    situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-
    France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

    High pressure will move east of the area tonight, and a weak cold
    front will move off the SE U.S. coast Fri night, then stall over
    northwest portions of the area through the weekend. Moderate to
    locally fresh winds will subside tonight as the high pressure
    moves away from the area.

    $$

    Torres