Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings


Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    ABNT20 KNHC 031105

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    Forecaster Zelinsky
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    AXNT20 KNHC 031049

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    649 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0910 UTC.


    A tropical wave is just offshore of western Africa, along
    18W/19W, from 21N southward, moving west at 15-20 knots.
    Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03.5N to 11.5N between
    20W and the west coast of Africa.

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, southward of 18N,
    moving west at 15 knots. Precipitation: the wave is moving
    through the area of nearby ITCZ precipitation. Saharan air is
    noted ahead and N of 15N across the wave axis and is producing low
    level stratocumulus. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
    06.5N to 12N between 30W and 37W.

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W from 17N southward,
    moving west at 20 knots. This wave has been accompanied by
    Saharan air and diminishing dust to the south of 14N. Small
    clusters of moderate convection are noted well ahead and well
    behind the wave axis across portions of coastal Venezuela.

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W, from 20N southward,
    moving westward 20 to 25 knots. Scattered moderate isolated
    strong convection is noted south of 13N between 76W and 81W and
    extend southward to 06N across the eastern Pacific.

    A tropical wave across the eastern Pacific along 93W/94W extends
    northward across southern Mexico to the central Bay of Campeche
    along 20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is interacting with a
    middle to upper level trough from the central Gulf to interior
    Mexico west of Veracruz. Associated convection is noted across
    southern Mexico and the adjacent eastern Pacific waters.


    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
    Guinea-Bissau, near 12N16W, to 07N36W. The ITCZ is along 06N40W,
    to 05N47W to 06N56W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
    noted within 240 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 23W
    and 33W, and within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 40W and 50W.


    An middle to upper level trough extends from central Florida
    coast, southwestward, across the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico
    and into south central Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
    covers the rest of the area, mostly in the NW corner of the Gulf
    of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection extends across the SE
    Gulf from 22.5N to 25N between 90W and the Florida Keys. A few
    clusters of moderate convection are moving southeastward across
    the Florida Big Bend waters.

    A 1016 mb high pressure is centered near 27N91W and is
    producing anticyclonic flow across the basin. Weak low level
    troughing extending east to west across the Florida Panhandle is
    helping to maintain moderate westerly winds across the NE Gulf to
    the mouth of the Mississippi River. This pattern will prevail
    through Mon to yield generally fair to benign marine conditions.
    However, expect fresh SE winds at times in the SW Gulf of Mexico
    early next week. W to NW winds across the northeast Gulf waters
    will also yield periods of active weather.


    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W moving westward 20
    knots. This wave remains surrounded by Saharan air. A second
    tropical wave is along 78W moving westward 20 to 25 kt.
    A ridge extends from a central Atlantic Ocean high pressure
    center, WSW to the NW Bahamas. The ridge will maintain fresh to
    occasionally strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea
    into Wednesday. Pulses of fresh to locally strong winds also are
    possible early next week in the Gulf of Honduras.


    An upper level trough extends from a 27N53W cyclonic circulation
    center, southwestward, to the eastern Caribbean Sea, and the
    67W/68W tropical wave.

    A stationary front extends from coastal Georgia along 32N, with
    moderate to fresh SW winds S of the boundary from NE Florida to W
    of Bermuda.

    A high pressure center is in the central Atlantic Ocean. A ridge
    extends WSW, from the center, to the NW Bahamas. The ridge will
    persist through early next week. Low pressure offshore of Cape
    Hatteras will move eastward Sunday and maintain SW winds across
    the NW offshore waters. Expect rainshowers and thunderstorms with
    gusty winds, to the areas that are to the north of 27N.

    Mostly sunny and uncomfortably warm temperatures are expected
    across South Florida the remainder of this week under the
    influence of a ridge. Isolated to scattered showers and
    thunderstorms are forecast in the afternoon and early evening