Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings


Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic

    ABNT20 KNHC 302330

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    700 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2017

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
    the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the
    Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2018. During the
    off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
    conditions warrant.

    Forecaster Beven
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    AXNT20 KNHC 191741

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    141 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1500 UTC.


    Atlantic Gale Warning: Southerly flow will increase off northeast
    Florida late tonight and Tue ahead of a cold front moving into
    the region late Tue. SW to W winds will reach gale force north of
    29N E of front to 76W late Tue through Wed as the front moves


    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W
    to 04N20W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from that
    point to 02N30W to 03N51W. A few showers are noted within 150 nm
    on either side of the ITCZ between 20W and 32W.



    As of 1500 UTC, a prefrontal trough has entered the NW Gulf of
    Mexico. A cold front is just inland over Texas. Scattered showers
    are along the front. Weak ridging extends from southeast Florida
    to the north central Gulf, supporting light to gentle southeast
    winds over most of the region. Radar imagery shows scattered
    moderate convection over the NE Gulf and Florida N of 28N between
    81W and 87W.

    The front will extend from the Florida Big Bend area to Veracruz
    Mexico tonight, just as a reinforcing push of cold air moves off
    the Texas coast. The reinforcing front overtakes the first front
    late Tue, accompanied by strong winds and building seas over the
    northern Gulf. The merged front sweeps southeast of the Gulf by
    early Wed. Winds and seas diminish across the Gulf through Thu as
    high pressure follows the front across the northern Gulf.


    A pair of scatterometer passes confirmed a large area of fresh to
    strong trade winds off Colombia, and a smaller area of strong
    winds south of the Bay Islands off central Honduras. Seas are
    reaching 8 ft off Colombia, but are generally 4 to 6 ft in the
    eastern and central Caribbean and tropical north Atlantic, and 2
    to 4 ft in the northwest Caribbean. No significant convection is

    Building high pressure north of the region will support fresh to
    locally strong trades across the south central Caribbean the
    next several days, except increasing to near gale force along the
    northwest coast of Colombia during the overnight hours. A cold
    front will pass through the Yucatan Basin by early Wed, then
    drift south and stall from the Windward Passage to central
    Honduras Fri, followed by fresh northerly flow and seas building
    to 7 ft.

    Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N
    61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises
    mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around Kick'em
    Jenny. Please see for additional information.


    Please see Special Features section for information on the
    developing gale warning in the Atlantic.

    A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N57W to 27N70W.
    Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front. The
    front will shift eastward and weaken through Tue. Farther south,
    weak ridging is supporting gentle breezes west of 60W, with 4 to 6
    ft seas in open waters east of 75W, due mainly to residual
    northerly swell.

    The next cold front will move off the coast late Tue, associated
    with a deep surface low moving off the mid-Atlantic coast. The
    supporting upper trough will become negatively tilted as it
    emerges off the coast. This will interact with the Gulf Stream to
    support scattered thunderstorms Tue night off the northeast coast
    of Florida. In addition to the gales, strong westerly winds and
    seas ranging from 8 ft to as high as 17 ft will prevail north of
    27N and west of 60W into Wed night.

    Winds and seas will diminish Thu as the front reaches from
    Bermuda to the Windward Passage, before stalling and weakening
    through late week. A weaker front will move eastward north of 28N
    Thu night into Fri.

    Over the eastern Atlantic, 1028 mb high pressure is centered near
    31N27W, supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds over the
    subtropics and moderate to fresh trades in the deep tropics. An
    upper trough is noted along 28W north of 05N, supporting a few
    small areas of modest convection along the monsoon trough and
    ITCZ. Recent altimeter satellite passes indicate seas are still 8
    to 12 ft north of 05N, likely in persistent long period NW swell.

    For additional information please visit