Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic

    066
    ABNT20 KNHC 212307
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Blake

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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    266
    AXNT20 KNHC 220000
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    759 PM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2345 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave has moved off the African coast with axis along
    22W between 06N-20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is
    embedded within a very dry and stable environment inhibiting
    convection at this time.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending along 40W
    from 05N-18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is also
    embedded within a very dry and stable environment caused by
    Saharan Air Layer outbreak migrating westward across the central
    and eastern Atlantic. Only isolated moderate convection is noted
    within 60 nm either side of the wave axis along 11N.

    A tropical wave has been repositioned based on satellite imagery
    and model data. The axis extends now along 60W between 09N-19N,
    moving westward near 15-20 kt. No significant convection is
    observed with this wave at this time.

    A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis extending along
    88W and south of 21N, moving westward at near 15 kt. Scattered
    moderate convection is over Central America and Yucatan Peninsula
    between 84W-92W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis extends from coast of Senegal near 14N17W
    to 09N23W to 09N43W. No significant convection is noted with these
    boundaries at this time.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Weak ridging reaches across the northern Gulf of Mexico along
    roughly 27N, maintaining light to gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft
    seas. Gentle to moderate easterly flow is noted elsewhere south
    of the ridge. Latest NWS mosaic radar display shows isolated
    showers and thunderstorms across much of the eastern part of the
    gulf, mainly due to a weak trough over that area. Scattered
    showers and thunderstorms are observed over the far southwest
    section of the gulf in association with the Yucatan Peninsula
    trough that typically moves offshore across the southwestern gulf
    late at night and into the morning hours, with the added factor
    of an upper-level low located just east of the coast of Mexico at
    22N97W. Expect for this convective activity to remain active
    through tonight. Otherwise, high pressure ridging will remain
    across the northern gulf waters, with the associated gradient
    producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through Thu.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The pressure gradient across the area will maintain fresh to
    strong winds over the south central Caribbean off the coast of
    Colombia and across the Gulf of Venezuela through Thu. Moderate
    to fresh trades will continue elsewhere through Thu.

    The tropical wave along 88W will move across the rest of the
    western Caribbean this evening before moving inland Central
    America. The tropical wave along 60W will enter the eastern
    Caribbean through Wed night and enter the eastern part of the
    central Caribbean by Thu.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Over the western Atlantic, a surface trough is analyzed from near
    30N74W to the central Bahamas. An upper-level trough extends from
    an upper-level low at 31N66W to the central Bahamas, and to
    central Cuba as a shear axis. Another trough extends from 32N59W
    to 27N68W, and another one extends from near 32N45W to 28N50W. A
    small surface trough extends from near 31N54W to 28N56W. With
    these features in place along with a moist and unstable
    environment, the result is scattered shower and thunderstorm
    activity over the waters north of 24N between 60W and 75W, with
    the most concentrated activity observed north of 27N and
    between 70W and 76W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
    elsewhere west of 58W. A 1025 mb high center is analyzed north of
    these troughs at 33N58W, with a ridge extending westward to
    Bermuda, and southwestward from there to east-central Florida High
    pressure ridging will continue over the basin through the next
    several days. The trough extending across the central Bahamas will
    continue westward through this evening. The aforementioned shower
    and thunderstorm activity is forecast to persist through Wed.

    Over the eastern part of the basin, a 1026 mb high is centered
    near 34N42W, supporting generally moderate north to northeast
    winds north of 20N. Saharan dust and associated dry air, as also
    mentioned above under Tropical Waves, is noted mainly east of
    about 56W on GOES-16 Saharan Air Layer animation is inhibiting
    convection from developing across the eastern and central Atlantic
    waters.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$

    JA/ERA