Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 181122
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    700 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    An elongated area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
    showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea, as well
    as portions of the Dominican Republic and northern Colombia.
    Development of this system into a tropical cyclone is not expected
    due to strong upper-level winds while it drifts northward during he
    next couple of days. However, locally heavy rainfall will be
    possible over portions of the northern coast of Colombia, eastern
    Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico through the weekend. For
    additional information concerning the heavy rainfall threat, please
    consult products issued by your local weather service office.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 181714
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1214 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1615 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURE...

    A cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico tonight and will
    move across the remainder of the Gulf through Monday. Strong high
    pressure building behind the front will produce gale force winds
    over the SW Gulf S of 25N to the west of the cold front beginning
    1200 UTC Sunday and persisting through Sunday night. See the
    latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
    for more details.

    ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

    The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
    07N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
    07N21W to 06N24W to 07N34W, then resumes west of a surface trough
    near 09N43W to the South American coast near 09N61W.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A ridge axis extends across the eastern Gulf from high pressure
    centered over the SE US Atlantic Coast. This ridge supports
    gentle winds over the eastern gulf, and moderate to fresh winds
    over the remainder of the Gulf. The basin is currently void of
    convection. A cold front will reach the NW Gulf tonight and will sweep
    across the Gulf through Monday. Gale force winds are expected
    over a portion of the SW Gulf Sunday into Sunday night behind the
    front. Please refer to the special features section for more
    details on this gale.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A surface trough extends from Hispaniola at 18N73W to a 1008 mb
    low near 11N75W and then southward over Colombia. Due to an upper
    trough to the west, scattered moderate convection is offset to the
    east of these surface features, and is occurring within 240 nm E
    of a line from 19N71W to 11N74W. High pressure over the western
    Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds over the
    northwestern Caribbean. Mainly gentle to moderate winds cover the
    remainder of the Caribbean. Over the next 24 hours the low and
    trough will drift northeastward with convection continuing to the
    east of the trough.

    ...HISPANIOLA...

    Scattered showers are over the western half of the island as
    moisture continues to get pulled across the region, due to an
    upper trough to the west. This pattern will continue through
    Sunday, with localized flooding possible during this time.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    High pressure centered near the SE US coast dominates the Atlantic
    waters west of 70W. A 1010 mb low is centered near 31N40W with a
    stationary front extending from this low to 27N47W to a 1008 mb
    low near 27N56W. A surface trough extends from this low to near
    20N69W. Another surface trough is just to the east and extends
    from 22N62W to 19N67W. These features are supporting a large area
    of showers and embedded areas of steady rainfall with isolated
    thunderstorms within 600 nm E of a line from 31N57W to 20N70W.
    High pressure of 1019 mb centered near 28N28W dominates the
    eastern Atlantic. Over the next 24 hours the lows will move NE
    with convection spreading east. SW winds will increase to 20 to 25
    kt N of 30N east of 70W Sunday as a cold front approaches the
    region.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    Latto