Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

Print

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


[columns] [column_item col=6]

Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

[/column_item] [column_item col=6]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 212307
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
[/column_item] [/columns]

Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

[columns] [column_item col=6][/column_item] [column_item col=6][/column_item] [/columns]

[columns] [column_item col=6]

Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [column_item col=6]

Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 212300
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Sun May 22 2022

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2150 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Heavy Rainfall over Central America and SE Mexico: A broad area
    of low pressure centered just off the Pacific coast of eastern El
    Salvador has produced periods of heavy rain during the past 24
    hours (20/1800 UTC to 21/1800 UTC) over portions of northern
    Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, coastal El Salvador and southern
    Guatemala, as indicated by a 24-hr infrared satellite loop. The
    current satellite imagery shows scattered to locally numerous moderate
    to strong convection extending from central Guatemala east and
    southeastward across Honduras, Nicaragua, and covering much of the
    southwest Caribbean south of 15N and west of 80W. Other scattered
    moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring over land
    across Costa Rica. Over the next 4 days or so (through Wed 25
    May), additional periods of moderate to heavy rain, with locally
    heavy to extreme rain, are expected over portions of western
    Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, southern Honduras, El Salvador,
    southern Guatemala and the Mexican state of Chiapas. There is
    potential for localized areas of flash flooding and mudslides,
    especially across mountainous terrain. This is a slow moving
    weather system. High atmospheric moisture content is expected over
    the area for the next several days. Please refer to products
    issued by your local or national meteorological agency for more
    information.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is in the Atlantic with axis along 56W-57W, from
    14N southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted near the ITCZ from 05N-09N between 50W-58W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the Senegal coast near 14N16.5W
    to 06N26W. The ITCZ continues from 06N26W to 04.5N35W to 07N54W.
    Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from
    03.5N-101N between the coast of Africa and 20W, while scattered
    moderate to strong is noted further west, from 05N to 07N between
    20W and 29W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of the
    ITCZ from 06N to 09.5N between 36W and 50W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    An upper-level trough extends from Mississippi southward to the
    southeast Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level diffluence on the east side
    of the upper trough is supporting numerous moderate and scattered
    strong convection covering the NE Gulf of Mexico, north of 25N
    and east of 90W. Gusty winds and frequent lightning are occurring
    with these thunderstorms. GOES-16 infrared imagery depicts cloud
    tops as cold as -76 deg C. A recent satellite altimeter pass from
    21/1630 UTC showed seas of 7 to 8 ft off the coast of central
    Texas. Fresh SE winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere across
    the basin W of 90W, while fresh to strong winds are across much of
    the eastern Gulf between 85W and 90W, where seas are estimated to
    be 7-9 ft. Smoke from agricultural fires over Mexico continues to
    spread northward and is producing hazy skies across the western
    Gulf west of 93W off Mexico and southern Texas.

    For the forecast, the area of strong thunderstorms over the NE
    Gulf of Mexico is expected to linger into the evening hours and slowly
    migrating W toward the north-central Gulf. Fresh to strong
    southeast winds along with rough seas will prevail from the
    south-central Gulf to the northwest Gulf into Sun between high
    pressure over the western Atlantic and broad low pressure over
    southern Mexico and northern Central America. Winds and seas will
    diminish Sun into Mon as the low pressure weakens, except for
    pulses of fresh to strong winds off the north coast of the Yucatan
    Peninsula, mainly at night. Looking ahead, a ridge will build
    from the western Atlantic across the northern Gulf through mid-
    week, supporting fresh southeast return flow over the western
    Gulf.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The eastern periphery of a broad cyclonic circulation over
    Central America, combined with the east Pacific monsoon trough, is
    combining to produce scattered to numerous deep convection across
    the southwest Caribbean, described above. Cloudiness with
    possible isolated showers prevails elsewhere over the NW Caribbean
    to the west of Jamaica. Mainly fair weather is found over the
    eastern and central Caribbean, east of 77W, due to subsidence from
    mid-level ridging over the area. A recent ASCAT satellite data
    pass showed fresh to strong E to SE trades over much of the
    central and western Caribbean. Moderate E trades cover the eastern
    basin. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are likely occurring over the far NW
    Caribbean to the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 7-10 ft are over the
    waters in between Colombia and Jamaica, while 3-5 ft seas prevail
    across the E basin.

    For the forecast, broad low pressure over Central America will
    persist through Sun as high pressure builds over the western
    Atlantic. This pattern will support fresh to strong east to
    southeast winds and rough seas over the central and northwest
    Caribbean through Sun. Winds and seas will start to diminish
    across the basin early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A surface ridge extends east to west from a 1027 mb high pressure
    near 33N28W to 27N44W, while a second high of 1027 mb is centered
    near 32N69W and extends to the coast of Georgia. This ridge is
    maintaining light to gentle winds north of 24N between 40W-75W,
    with 3-4 ft seas. A recent ASCAT satellite wind data pass shows
    moderate to fresh SE winds from north of Hispaniola through the
    Old Bahama Channel to South Florida. Currently, seas near the
    Windward Passage are likely 4 to 5 ft, while 3 to 4 ft seas
    prevail over the remainder of the western Atlantic. A couple of
    weak surface troughs over the central Atlantic are inducing some
    scattered showers north of 23N between 38W-53W. Recent ASCAT data
    showed fresh trades north of the ITCZ to 16N between 40W and 60W,
    where seas are likely 5 to 7 ft. Moderate trades and 5-6 ft seas
    are elsewhere from the ITCZ to 20N between 30W- 60W. Fresh NNE
    winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail north of 20N between the coast of
    Africa and 21W.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure ridge along 32N
    will strengthen some through the weekend, then weaken next week.
    The associated pressure gradient will allow for mainly gentle to
    moderate winds across the region through the period, except for
    pulsing moderate to fresh east winds north of Hispaniola through
    late Sun. Moderate northeast swell may impact the waters east of
    60W and north of 25N Sun through Tue. The swell is expected to
    subside Tue night into Wed.

    $$
    Stripling