Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 302330
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    700 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2017

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
    the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the
    Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2018. During the
    off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
    conditions warrant.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 242347
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    647 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2345 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    A system of low pressure over the NE Atlc will support a cold
    front forecast to extend from 31N35W to 28N48W by early Monday. A
    strong pressure gradient between this low pressure and surface
    ridging west of it will lead to the development of gale-force
    winds mainly east of 41W. Gale conditions are forecast to prevail
    through the next day or so. For more details, refer to the NHC
    High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends along 03N0W to 02N14W to 01N29W. The
    ITCZ continues from that point to 02N40W to the coast of Brazil
    near 01N50W. Numerous strong convection is N of the Equator
    between 05E-12W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm
    either side of the monsoon trough between 12W-30W and within 120
    nm N of the ITCZ W of 38W.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Fair weather prevails across the basin due to very dry
    conditions at the lower and middle levels as indicated by GOES-
    16 water vapor imagery. This is supporting mainly clear skies
    basin-wide. CIRA microwave imagery at the lower levels show
    patches of shallow moisture advecting to the NW Gulf, which is
    supporting dense fog N of 26N W of 89W. A broad area of high
    pressure over the SW N Atlc extending a ridge SW across Florida
    and the eastern Gulf continue to support moderate to fresh SE
    flow across the basin, being the strongest winds W of 90W. No
    significant changes are expected through Sunday. On early Monday
    morning, a cold front is forecast to move over the northwestern
    waters from Louisiana to Brownsville, Texas to inland NE Mexico.
    By Monday afternoon, the front is forecast to extend from the
    Florida Panhandle to 27N94W to inland NE Mexico and then it will
    stall before it lifts northward along the Gulf coast through Tue
    night. Scattered to isolated showers will accompany this
    boundary.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Water vapor imagery from GOES-16 show deep layer dry air across
    the basin, which is supporting overall fair weather conditions.
    However, isolated to scattered showers are possible during the
    afternoon hours in the Greater Antilles as remnant shallow
    moisture associated with a former front advects from the north
    or SW N Atlc waters. An elongated upper level low centered NE of
    Hispaniola will support this convection and currently supports
    passing showers across Jamaica and southern adjacent waters. The
    other area where scattered to isolated showers are being
    reported is the SE Caribbean. Tropical Atlc moisture along with
    middle level diffluence support the convection in this section.
    In terms of winds, latest scatterometer data depict fresh trades
    across the central and eastern basin, with locally strong winds
    within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia increasing to near gale-
    force at night. Seas are highest near the coast of Colombia, up
    to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are in the NW Caribbean.
    Looking ahead, winds and seas are expected to gradually lessen by
    Sunday morning as the high pressure system north of the area
    weakens.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Gale-force winds are forecast to develop over NE Atlc waters by
    early Monday morning. See the Special Features section above for
    further details. In the SW N Atlc, a broad ridge anchored by a
    1028 mb high near 31N69W continue to support fresh to locally
    strong NE to E winds in the approaches of the Windward Passage
    and the eastern Great Bahama Bank. A low pressure system over
    the NE Atlantic continue to support a cold front that enters the
    area of discussion from 30N27W SW to 25N40W where it starts to
    weaken. Otherwise, a 1007 mb low and associated trough SW of the
    Canary Islands continue to weaken. Little change is expected
    over the remainder of the basin during the next day or two as
    the high pressure system remains stationary and while it weakens.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$

    ERA/NR