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NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

• NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
  725 <br />AXNT20 KNHC 270439<br />TWDAT <br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />0615 UTC Sun Apr 27 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />0425 UTC.<br /><br />...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <br /><br />The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of<br />Senegal at 14N17W and continues southwestward to 03N23W. The ITCZ<br />extends from 03N23W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered<br />moderate to isolated strong convection is evident south of 08N and<br />east of 25W. Scattered showers are also present south of 05N and<br />west of 41W.<br /><br />GULF OF AMERICA...<br /> <br />A weak high pressure dominates the Gulf of America, supporting<br />moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas south of 22N and<br />east of 94W. Mainly moderate E-SE winds and moderate seas prevail<br />in the rest of the basin, except for light to gentle winds and<br />slight seas in the NE Gulf. A stable airmass maintains fairly <br />tranquil weather conditions.<br /><br />For the forecast, a surface ridge will continue to dominate the<br />Gulf waters this weekend and into early next week supporting <br />gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will <br />pulse to fresh to strong speeds each evening over the east and <br />central Bay of Campeche through Tue night due to local effects <br />related to a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. <br />Winds of moderate to fresh speeds and moderate seas are forecast <br />in the Straits of Florida through the period due to persistent <br />high pressure NE of the area. By Monday night, SE winds may <br />increase in the central and northwest Gulf and persist into mid-<br />week. <br /><br />CARIBBEAN SEA... <br /><br />A band of multilayer clouds, with embedded scattered showers and <br />a few thunderstorms, extends from northern Colombia and Venezuela <br />northeastward across the eastern Caribbean and the northern <br />Leeward Islands into the central Atlantic. This cloudiness is <br />associated with strong SW winds aloft occurring on the eastern <br />side of a broad upper level trough across the Caribbean basin. <br />Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is <br />producing isolated to scattered passing showers across much of the<br />northeast Caribbean and adjacent islands. <br /><br />High pressure centered north of the area support moderate to fresh<br />easterly trade winds in the lee of Cuba, along with seas of 2-4<br />ft. Mainly moderate easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted<br />in the south-central and eastern Caribbean and Windward Passage.<br />Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are<br />prevalent.<br /><br />For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin combined with the<br />Colombian low will support pulsing fresh winds at night in the<br />Windward Passage, south of Cuba, and offshore Colombia, with<br />moderate trade winds elsewhere. By Monday evening, winds will <br />pulse to strong south of Cuba and in the Windward Passage, as high<br />pressure north of the area strengthens.<br /><br />ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br /><br />A broad surface trough persists over the Atlantic waters, from <br />eastern Hispaniola to near 29N61W. A few showers are noted near<br />and to the east of the boundary. A recent scatterometer satellite<br />pass captured fresh to locally strong easterly winds north of 25N<br />and between 53W and 67W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate<br />to locally fresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas are<br />evident south of 25N and west of 72W. <br /><br />The rest of the basin is dominated by broad riding, supporting<br />moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas<br />between 25W and 60W. A tighter pressure gradient between the ridge<br />off Portugal and lower pressures in western Africa sustain fresh<br />to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 6-9 ft east of 25W and<br />north of 18N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to<br />moderate seas prevail.<br /><br />For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends along 31N<br />east of 60W. Fresh east winds are associated with this feature. <br />This front will drift eastward over the next couple days. <br />Elsewhere, a weak surface trough along 66W extending from La Mona <br />Passage to 29N will persist for the next few days. A cold front <br />will move S of 31N on Sun night, reach from near 31N61W to 26N72W <br />to Daytona Beach Florida Mon evening, then move to near 31N55W to <br />the central Bahamas Tue evening before weakening. Moderate to <br />fresh NNE to NE winds will follow in behind the front.<br /><br />$$<br />Delgado