Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 302312
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    700 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

    This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the
    2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical
    Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season,
    Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions
    warrant.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 141013
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sun Apr 14 2024

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A broad subtropical ridge north of the
    Greater Antilles is forcing fresh to near gale-force easterly
    trade winds across the south-central Caribbean Sea. Winds will
    pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia tonight. Seas are
    8-12 ft in the area described, with the highest seas off NW
    Colombia. Conditions will improve by midweek.

    Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal
    near 15N17W and continues southward to 01N20W. The ITCZ extends
    from 01N20W to 00N30W and to 01S45W. Scattered moderate to
    isolated strong convection is observed south of 04N and west of
    21W.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    A broad subtropical ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico
    dominates the basin, maintaining fairly tranquil weather
    conditions. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds are found south
    of 28N, including the Florida Straits. Seas in these waters are
    to 3 ft. Gentle to moderate SE winds and seas of 2-5 ft are noted
    north of 23N.

    For the forecast, high pressure dominates the Gulf basin. Strong
    winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the
    evening the next several days. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds
    with slight to moderate seas can be expected through early next
    week. Winds will become fresh to strong over the western Gulf on
    Mon night into Tue.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please read the Special Features section for details about a gale
    warning off NW Colombia.

    Pockets of low-level moisture in the NE Caribbean Sea and Gulf of
    Honduras are producing light, isolated showers. Outside of the
    gale warning region, the broad subtropical ridge north of the
    Greater Antilles forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds in
    the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-8
    ft. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 3-6 ft are evident in the
    lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Moderate or weaker winds
    and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.

    For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail off the
    coast of Colombia, pulsing to gale- force tonight with seas to 12
    ft. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Windward Passage, S of
    the Dominican Republic, and in the Lee of Cuba for the next few
    days. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas
    can be expected across much of the basin through early next week.
    Fresh to occasionally strong winds may develop in the Gulf of
    Honduras mid- week.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends from 31N62W to 25N69W, where it becomes a
    stationary front to the coast of NE Cuba. Light showers are noted
    near the frontal boundary. Fresh to locally strong southerly
    winds and seas of 6-9 ft are evident north of 29N and from the
    front to 58W. A subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the
    western Atlantic behind the frontal boundary, supporting moderate
    or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas, especially east of
    77W.

    Farther east, a shear line extends from 30N28W to the Leeward
    Islands. Low pressure with a central pressure of 1010 mb is
    lcoated near 32N33W. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are noted around
    this low and north of the shear line and east of 60W. Seas
    associated with this system range 12 to 17 ft N of 26N. South of
    26N, seas are 8 to 11 ft stretching as far south as 12N and as far
    west as Puerto Rico. In the remaining waters, moderate or weaker
    winds and moderate to rough seas prevail.

    For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N62W to
    25N69W where it stalls from that point to eastern Cuba. The front
    is expected to continue to stall today and gradually dissipate
    through Mon. Strong winds occurring E of the front N of 30N will
    diminish early this morning. Rough seas accompanying the front
    will subside today. Large N-NE swell across the SE waters will
    linger through Mon. Otherwise, high pressure will build in the
    wake of the front through early next week with more tranquil
    marine conditions expected.

    $$
    AReinhart