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NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

• NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 270556
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  0605 UTC Sat Apr 27 2024
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  0540 UTC.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along 03N16W
  02N24W 02N32W, to the Equator along 37W, to the Equator along 40W.
  Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to
  the south of the line 08N12W 07N30W 06N40W 05N52W.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  A NW-to-SE oriented inland Mexico surface trough passes through
  the far west of Texas, to 23N100W, through the Isthmus of
  Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to west central Guatemala.
  A broad surface trough is in the Gulf of Mexico from the Texas/
  Louisiana border to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Surface
  anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the area. The GFS model
  for 700 mb shows a trough that extends from the middle Texas Gulf
  coast to the western sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFS
  model for 700 mb shows anticyclonic wind flow in the eastern half
  of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level westerly wind flow is pushing
  high level moisture from Mexico into most of the Gulf of Mexico.
  
  Moderate to rough seas have been from 24N to 28N between 92W and
  97W. Slight seas are from 25N northward from 86W eastward. Moderate
  seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong
  SE winds are in the Gulf of Mexico.
  
  Tight pressure gradient between a strong ridge in the NW Atlantic
  and lower pressures in the central US and Mexico will support
  fresh to strong southeast winds over much of the Gulf through Sun
  night. Seas are expected to peak near 11 ft in the NW Gulf Sat
  night and Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to fresh to strong
  speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the
  forecast period.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  A surface trough remains in the eastern half of the Dominican
  Republic. Precipitation: scattered moderate spans Hispaniola in
  particular. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated
  to widely scattered moderate, are in the Caribbean Sea, to the
  east of the line that runs from 14N83W at the coast of Nicaragua
  beyond the Windward Passage. Heavy rains and flooding have been
  occurring in Hispaniola during the last 8 days to 10 days. It is
  possible that continual amounts of rain may help to increase the
  chances for flash flooding in inland areas, especially in hilly
  terrain and in low-lying areas. Please, refer to bulletins from
  your local weather service offices, for more details about this
  event.
  
  Slight seas are within 60 nm of the coasts of Nicaragua and
  Honduras from 14N to 16N; from 20N northward between 80W and 82W;
  and within 120 nm of the Gulf of Honduras from 86W westward.
  Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to
  strong NE winds are in the Windward Passage; and within 120 nm of
  the coast of Honduras. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the
  remainder of the Caribbean Sea.
  
  The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
  at 27/0000 UTC, are: 0.17 in Guadeloupe. This information is from
  the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.
  
  Strong ridge off New England will force fresh to strong trade
  winds in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and
  south of Hispaniola through early next week. Seas will peak near 8
  ft during the strongest winds. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
  winds will prevail in the rest of the basin.
  
  ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  A surface trough is along 31N60W 25N66W, through the eastern half
  of the Dominican Republic, to 16N70W in the Caribbean Sea.
  Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
  Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 45W and 76W. Moderate
  seas are between 50W and 70W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from
  the surface trough northward between 60W and 70W. Moderate and
  slower winds are from 20N to the surface trough between 58W and
  the surface trough.
  
  A cold front is passing through 31N70W, to 29N78W. The cold front
  is dissipating, from 29N78W, northwestward to 30N83W in Florida.
  Precipitation: isolated moderate is from the cold front northward.
  Strong NE to E winds are from 30N to 33N between 76W and 80W.
  Fresh to strong NE winds are elsewhere from 80W westward. Moderate
  seas are from 30N northward from 70W westward. Slight seas are
  from 30N southward from 70W westward.
  
  A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 18N41W. Precipitation:
  broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are
  from 13N to 22N between 35W and 45W. Other similar clouds and
  precipitation are from 10N to 20N between 45W and 60W. Fresh NE
  winds are from 23N northward between 33W and 44W. Moderate to
  fresh NE winds are from 23N northward from 33W eastward. Mostly
  moderate to some fresh NE winds are in the remainder of the
  Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet, just
  less than rough seas, from 16N to 30N between 33W and 51W.
  Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.
  
  Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 18N northward from 40W
  eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
  25N27W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is from 20N to 30N
  between 28W and 40W. Precipitation: broken to overcast
  multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are in the areas of
  the upper level cyclonic wind flow.
  
  A cold front currently south of 30N and W of 70W will merge with
  a frontal trough that extends from 31N61W to the eastern Dominican
  Republic tonight. The front will reach from near 31N58W to
  eastern Cuba by Sat morning, and from near 25N55W to Hispaniola by
  Sun morning, then stall and weaken over the far southeastern part
  late Sun through Mon night. North swell behind the front will
  build seas to a peak of 12 ft over northeast offshore waters by
  Sun. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will
  result in fresh to strong north to northeast winds behind the
  front from tonight through Sun. By late Sun, fresh winds will
  prevail in the wake of the weakening front and continue through
  Mon. Tranquil conditions are expected Tue as high pressure becomes
  centered over the NW part of the offshore waters, with the
  induced gradient supporting fresh northeast to east winds over the
  southern waters.
  
  $$
  mt/sd