Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 240547
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
    Epsilon, located over the west-central Atlantic a couple of hundred
    miles northeast of Bermuda.

    Satellite and surface observations indicate that a broad area of low
    pressure has redeveloped just south of Grand Cayman Island. Shower
    and thunderstorm activity continues to increase in organization,
    and environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for
    further development. A tropical depression will likely form during
    the next day or two while the low drifts toward the northwest or
    north. The system could move near western Cuba by Sunday and move
    slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week.
    Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida
    should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of
    development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions
    of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida
    Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through the weekend and into
    early next week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 232345
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Fri Oct 23 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2330 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Hurricane Epsilon is centered near 35.5N 61.7W at 23/2100 UTC,
    or about 250 nm northeast of Bermuda is moving N or 360 degrees
    at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum
    sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Tropical
    storm-forced winds extend within 240 nm of the center in the
    northern semicircle and SE quadrant and within 120 nm of the
    center in the SW quadrant. Seas of 12 ft and greater extend
    outward very large distances from the center, up to 480 nm in the
    NW quadrant and 420 in the SE Quadrant. Maximum seas are up to
    34 ft. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate
    to intermittent isolated strong convection within 90 nm of the
    center in the W and NW quadrants and 60 nm of the center in the
    NE quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within
    150 nm of the center in the W semicircle and within 90 nm of the
    center in E semicircle. A large area of widespread rain with
    embedded scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are
    observed well to the north and northeast of Epsilon from 39N to 42W
    between 62W-66W and from 38N to 42W between 53W-62W. Epsilon is
    forecast to continue on a general northward motion through early
    Sat, with a very fast forward motion toward the northeast
    anticipated early next week. Some fluctuations in strength could
    occur for the next day or so before Epsilon begins to gradually
    weaken on Sun. Epsilon could lose tropical characteristics late Sun.
    Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the
    Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml
    for more details.

    A 1007 mb low is over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near 19N82W,
    with a trough extending south-southeast to near 12N80W and
    another trough that extends from the low to Cozumel, Mexico.
    Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed
    from 18N to 20N between 80W-84W, from 15N to 18N between 77W-
    80W including western and central Jamaica and also from 13N to
    17N between 75W-76W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
    convection is within 30 nm of a line from 16N80W to 16N84W and
    from 11N to 13N between 75W-76W. Scattered showers and isolated
    thunderstorms are elsewhere between 80W-87W. Montego Bay,
    Jamaica reported heavy shower and thunderstorm activity during
    the early afternoon hours and .74 inches during the past 24 hours
    ending at 12Z this morning. This system is part of a broad area
    of low pressures that is gradually becoming better defined with
    time. Atmospheric conditions appear conducive for further
    development, and a tropical depression will likely form during
    the next day or two while the low pressure drifts toward the
    northwest. The system could move near western Cuba by Sun, then
    move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next
    week. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern
    Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
    Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be
    possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba,
    southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
    through the weekend. This system has a high chance of tropical
    cyclone development during the next 48 hours.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 27W/28W
    from 03N to 13N. It is moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered
    moderate convection is within 180 nm east and 120 nm west of
    the wave from 04N to 10N.

    A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis along 50W/51W
    from 01N to 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate
    to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm east of the wave
    from 09N to 13N. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
    west of the wave from 10N to 12N.

    A tropical wave has crossed the Lesser Antilles into the eastern
    Caribbean Sea, with its axis along 62W south of 19N. It is
    moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is underneath a sharp
    upper-level trough that extends from the central Atlantic to the
    eastern Caribbean. Atmospheric instability aloft induced by the
    trough is helping to promote scattered shower and thunderstorm
    activity within 120 nm west of the wave axis and south of 14N to
    within 90 nm inland the coast of Venezuela.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau
    near 12N16W to 09N20W, where latest scatterometer data indicates
    that it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N27W to 05N40W to 05N45W and
    to 05N49W. It continues west of a tropical wave near 05N51W to
    inland French Guiana near 05N54W. Scattered moderate convection
    is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 22W-24W, within 120 nm
    south of the ITCZ between 20W-26W, within 180 nm north of the
    ITCZ between 30W-33W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between
    33W-36W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A 1010 mb low is analyzed in the southeastern Bay of Campeche
    near 20N91W, with a trough extending northwestward to near
    24N96W. An Ascat pass from this afternoon captured light to
    gentle winds shifting from northeast to east in direction
    northeast of the trough, to west to northwest in direction
    southwest of trough. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
    over sections of the northern Yucatan Peninsula as well as
    over some areas of southeastern Mexico. A trough is along the
    Florida coast from Sarasota northward to inland northern Florida
    just east of Cross City. A sub-tropical jet stream branch
    stretches from the eastern Pacific Ocean eastward to over
    central Mexico and east-northeastward to across central Florida.
    A mid-level shortwave trough riding along this jet stream branch
    in combination with deep layer moisture that is already in place
    over the eastern Gulf is resulting in the development of
    scattered moderate convection from 25N to 27N between 84W-87W.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident elsewhere between
    83W-88W. Expect for this activity to continue through the
    weekend. A cold front, presently noted in satellite imagery over
    eastern and central Texas, will quickly move offshore the Texas
    coast this evening. A squall line rapidly surging south-southeastward
    precedes the front over northeastern Texas. A line of strong
    thunderstorms, with frequent lightning, is fast approaching the
    NE Texas coast. Isolated showers are seen west of 88W.

    Latest Ascat data indicates generally light to moderate east to
    southeast winds over the eastern Gulf, except for fresh wind
    speeds over the southeastern Gulf where a tighter gradient
    exists between the broad low pressure over the northwestern
    Caribbean Sea and high pressure that ridges south-southwestward
    from the eastern U.S. to the NE Gulf. Seas throughout per current
    buoy observations and latest altimeter data are in the range of
    3-5 ft, with the highest of the range found in southeastern
    Gulf.

    As for the forecast, the broad low pressure over the northwestern
    Caribbean Sea will continue to gradually become better defined
    over the next couple of days, with a high chance of it developing
    into to a tropical depression. It is expected that this area of
    low pressure will move across western Cuba into the southeastern
    Gulf of Mexico, then move northward through the eastern Gulf
    through mid-week. Regardless of development, heavy rain is
    possible over western Cuba and South Florida into early next
    week. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat morning,
    stall, then lift back north as a warm front through Sun.

    CARIBBEAN SEA

    See the Special Features section for details relating to broad
    low pressure are in the northwestern Caribbean.

    Aside from convection associated with the Special Features area
    of broad low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea consisting
    of A 1007 mb low near 19N82W, with a trough extending south-
    southeast to near 12N80W and another trough to Cozumel, Mexico
    and the convection related to the eastern Caribbean tropical
    wave, clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection are
    occurring from 15N to 18N between 74W- 80W. This activity is
    being aided by an inverted mid-level trough axis that extends
    from near 14N75W to 12N80W. Isolated showers moving quickly
    westward are seen elsewhere across the basin, with the exception
    of scattered showers and thunderstorms that are along and just
    offshore the coasts of Panama and southern Costa Rica.

    Latest Ascat data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the south-
    central Caribbean and light to gentle trades elsewhere, with the
    exception of moderate to fresh east to southeast winds north and
    northeast of area of broad low pressure. Seas throughout are in
    the range of 4-6 ft, except for up to 8 ft east of 80W including
    the Mona Passage region.

    As for the forecast, the Special Features area of broad low
    pressure in the northwestern Caribbean will continue to gradually
    become better defined over the next couple of days, with a high
    chance that it will develop into a tropical depression as it
    moves near western Cuba by Sun, then move slowly across the
    southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Interests in
    western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida should
    monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of
    development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over
    portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, southern Florida,
    the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through the
    weekend. Winds and seas will increase east of the Windward
    Islands and in the eastern Caribbean through early next week
    between this low and higher pressure over the Atlantic.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please see the Special Features section above for details
    on Hurricane Epsilon. Also, please see the Tropical Waves
    section above for information on the two Atlantic tropical waves.

    A trough extends from near 25N68W southwestward to northwest
    Haiti. Scattered moderate convection west of the trough south of
    24N, including the southeastern Bahamas and the eastern part of
    the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers and isolated
    thunderstorms are within 60 to 90 nm either side of the trough
    from 24N to 25N. Similar convection is within 120 nm southeast
    of a trough analyzed south of Epsilon that extends from 30N60W
    to 27N65W and to 26N70W. Latest Ascat data shows fresh to strong
    west to northwest winds west of the trough to 67W and north of
    28N. Seas there are in the range of 8-12 ft.

    Scattered showers and thunderstorms, moving eastward are within
    30 nm of a line from 23N61W to 24N65W.

    High pressure is present elsewhere across the Atlantic east of
    60W, with the culprit high pressure center anchored north of
    the area at 35N34W. Weaker high pressure is over the western
    Atlantic north of 28N and west of 70W. Latest Ascat data shows
    generally gentle to moderate east winds over the western
    Atlantic and mainly moderate to fresh east winds south of 22N
    between 55W and 60W, with seas of 6-8 ft in NE swell.

    Hurricane Epsilon is well north of the area to the northeast
    of Bermuda and is expected to continue northward through
    early Sat, with a very fast forward motion toward the northeast
    anticipated early next week. Epsilon could lose tropical
    characteristics late Sun.

    Long-period northeast swell generated from Hurricane Epsilon,
    now well north of the area, will continue to impact the waters
    north and northeast of the Bahamas through Sat. Low pressure
    moving northeast from Central Cuba has a high chance of tropical
    formation early next week over waters near South Florida and the
    northern and central Bahamas. Regardless of development, heavy
    rain and gusty winds are possible across South Florida and the
    Bahamas this weekend through early next week.

    $$
    Aguirre