Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 161118
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    A well-defined low pressure system located near the northwestern
    coast of Honduras continues to produce a large area of cloudiness
    and thunderstorms over portions of the far western Caribbean Sea and
    much of Central America. Although this system could still become a
    tropical depression before it moves inland over southern Belize by
    early afternoon, any further development is unlikely due to land
    interaction. Once the low moves inland, rapid weakening is expected.
    Regardless of development, strong gusty winds are possible over
    portions of Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula today before
    diminishing by this evening. In addition, locally heavy rainfall,
    which could cause flash flooding, is possible across portions of
    Central America during the next few days. The Air Force Reserve
    Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission that was scheduled for this
    afternoon has been canceled due the disturbance's proximity to land.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 161151
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    751 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1115 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    A broad area of low pressure, a Central American Gyre, is
    centered over the Gulf of Honduras near 16N88W. Scattered
    moderate to strong convection is from 14N-18N between 85W-89W to
    include central Honduras and Belize. This system is expected to
    move west- northwest toward Belize. The probability of tropical
    cyclone development during the next is moderate, but the potential
    for heavy rainfall, flash flooding and mudslides over areas of
    mountainous terrain is high. Refer to your local meteorological
    service for specific information on this potentially dangerous
    weather pattern.

    A cold front extends from southern Louisiana across the NW Gulf
    to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. Strong high pressure in cold
    air behind the front has induced gale force winds south of 26N
    near the front, based on scatterometer data. Winds are expected to
    diminish below gale in the SW Gulf by Wed night.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 24W from 03N-
    14N, moving W at 15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a distinct maximum
    in moisture around the wave axis. Isolated moderate convection is
    from 06N-12N between 17W-26W.

    A tropical wave axis is along 58W from 05N-21N, moving west at 15
    kt. A 700 mb trough is depicted by model analyses with the wave,
    and there is a local maximum in TPW. Scattered moderate to
    isolated strong convection is from 08N-17N between 48W-58W.
    Moisture associated with this wave will enhance showers and
    thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles today through Wednesday,
    with this activity spreading into the eastern Caribbean later in
    the week.

    A tropical wave in the central Caribbean is along 71W south of
    21N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
    within 90-120 nm of the wave axis. It is expected to become
    diffuse and ill-defined within the next 24-36 hours as it moves
    into the western Caribbean.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N17W
    to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 09N25W to the coast of South
    America near 00N48W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm either
    side of the ITCZ.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A 1014 mb low is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 28N95W.
    A quasi-stationary front extends E of the low to S Louisiana near
    30N90W. A cond front extends S from the low to the Bay of Campeche
    near 21N97W. A gale is W of front, south of 26N. The remainder of
    the Gulf has mainly 10-15 kt E to SE surface winds, and mostly
    fair weather. The front is expected to stall over the northern
    Gulf near the mouth of the Mississippi, while the western portion
    of the front pushes further southward into the Bay of Campeche.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A tropical wave over the central Caribbean is forecast to become
    diffuse and ill-defined by Wed morning. Another tropical wave
    is forecast to move into the eastern Caribbean Wed.

    Scattered moderate to strong convection is over Nicaragua, Costa
    Rica, and the SW Caribbean from 08N-15N between 81W-85W. Similar
    convection is over N Colombia from 04N-10N between 72W-78W.

    See the special features section above for more information
    about heavy rainfall associated with the Central American Gyre.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    See above about the tropical waves in the tropical Atlantic.

    A broad ridge of high pressure prevails across the Atlantic. A
    dissipating stationary front extends from 31N62W to 28N64W with
    minimal shower activity associated with this boundary. A surface
    trough is in the east-central Atlantic from 27N36W to 18N33W
    enhancing trade wind showers north of 19N between 30W-41W. This
    area of showers is moving west at 10-15 kt.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    Formosa