Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic

    186
    ABNT20 KNHC 202344
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    A small but concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms
    associated with a tropical wave is located about 650 miles east of
    the Windward Islands. The combination of dry mid-level air and
    strong upper-level winds are expected to hinder any development of
    this disturbance while it moves westward to west-northwestward at
    10 to 15 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

    A non-tropical area of low pressure with gale-force winds, located
    about 100 miles north-northeast of Bermuda, is moving southeastward
    at about 15 mph. The combination of dry air associated with a
    weakening frontal system and strong upper-level winds are expected
    to inhibit any significant development for the next couple of days.
    However, conditions could become a bit more conducive for this low
    to gradually acquire some tropical characteristics early next week
    while the system moves southward on Sunday, and then drifts westward
    to the southwest of Bermuda on Monday.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

    Another non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop
    by Friday night over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean midway
    between Bermuda and the Azores. Conditions are expected to be
    conducive for the low to acquire some subtropical or tropical
    characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone could form
    late this weekend or early next week while the low meanders over the
    central Atlantic Ocean.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

    A tropical wave is moving off the coast of Guinea in western Africa.
    Some slow but gradual development of this system is possible during
    the next several days as the disturbance moves westward at 15 to 20
    mph across the low latitudes of the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart

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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    220
    AXNT20 KNHC 210005
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    805 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2330 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/25W from 20N
    southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The total precipitable
    water (TPW) satellite animation shows a well-depicted plume of
    moisture trailing the wave between 22W and the coast of Africa.
    Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 10N to 20N between 20W and
    30W.

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W, moving across
    Hispaniola. TPW imagery shows enhanced moisture associated with
    this tropical wave. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are
    within 150 nm to the south of Hispaniola between 69W and 73W.
    Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 60 nm
    to the north of Hispaniola between 70W and 73W.
    This activity is currently affecting the southern coast of the
    Dominican Republic. Satellite imagery indicates some Saharan dust
    east of the wave from 12N-24N between 57W-67W. Puerto Rico and the
    Virgin Islands are reporting hazy conditions. Strong wind gusts
    are possible near showers and storms associated with this wave
    through Friday as it moves westward through the central Caribbean.
    The wave is expected to increase the likelihood of showers and
    thunderstorms over the remainder of Hispaniola today, and across
    eastern Cuba and Jamaica on Friday.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
    near 09N13W to 05N18W and 05N24W. The ITCZ continues from 05N24W
    to 09N45W, and then from 09N50W to 06N56W. Scattered to numerous
    strong rainshowers are along the coast of Africa from 05N to 11N
    between 13W and 19W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere
    from 13N southward between Africa and 60W.


    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Water vapor imagery and model analyses indicate the presence of
    an upper-level cyclonic shear axis stretching from the Florida
    Straits to southeast Louisiana. At the surface, a trough extends
    from near Ft. Myers, FL southwestward to near 24N86W. Another
    trough extends through the central Bay of Campeche from 24N91W to
    the coast of Mexico near 18N93W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
    are noted over the Bay of Campeche. This trough and associated
    moisture will move westward, reaching mainland Mexico by late Fri.
    A small 1019 mb surface high is centered over northern Florida
    near 30N83W.

    High pressure building over the eastern United States will
    produce mainly gentle to moderate E to SE breezes and 1 to 4 ft
    seas across the Gulf through Sun. A trough moving west across the
    southwest Gulf will reach the Mexico coast by Sat. Locally fresh
    winds are possible with this trough.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A 1008 mb low along the monsoon trough is located in the
    southwest Caribbean near 11N82W. These features are producing
    numerous moderate to strong convection over the southwest
    Caribbean from 10N-13N between 77W-86W. This activity is affecting
    parts of northern Costa Rica and Nicaragua, including the city of
    Bluefields, where heavy thunderstorms are currently being
    reported. Plenty of moisture will persist over the southwest
    Caribbean through Saturday as the tropical wave, currently along
    70W, reaches the area and moves inland into central America late
    Sat or early Sun.

    A tropical wave along 71W-72W will move west across the central
    Caribbean through Fri, and then over central America Sun. Strong
    wind gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms associated
    with this tropical wave across the eastern Caribbean through Fri.
    Meanwhile, high pressure building from the central Atlc into the
    central Bahamas will support moderate to fresh trade winds and
    building seas across the entire basin now through Fri, before
    winds diminish slightly Sat and then more significantly on Sun.


    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A 1012 mb surface low, formerly a tropical wave, is producing a
    concentrated area of thunderstorms near 10.5N49W, or about 740 nm
    east of the Windward Islands. Although this disturbance shows
    some signs of organization on satellite imagery, there is no
    evidence of a surface circulation at this time. A recent ASCAT
    pass confirms the presence of an open trough. Scattered moderate
    convection in a banding pattern is noted from 10N-13N between 46W-
    50W. Some additional development is possible today before upper-
    level winds become highly unfavorable for tropical cyclone
    formation starting tonight and continuing through the weekend.

    The remnant of Joyce is analyzed as a 1014 mb low near 30N32W. A
    trough extends from the low to 26N34W. No significant convection
    is noted.

    A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N69W and continues
    southwestward to 29N73W to 29N79W. Scattered showers are within
    120 nm ahead of the frontal boundary between 70W-78W. East of the
    front, a surface trough is analyzed from 29N62W to 23N70W.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms are located within 150 nm east
    of the trough. Scatterometer data indicate winds of 20-25 kt are
    currently occurring north of 29N between 64W-69W. This area of
    20-25 kt winds will move eastward over the area for the next 12
    hours before gradually weakening. The aforementioned front will
    sink SE to the waters north of 27N through Fri before the front
    dissipates.

    Low pressure moving off the Carolinas overnight has dragged a
    weak early season frontal boundary from 31N66W to 29N79W. The
    front will sink SE to waters north of 27N through Fri before the
    front dissipates. The low will move SE to near 29N66W by Sat
    morning then drift W and should slowly weaken through Mon. NE
    swell will move into the open waters east of the Bahamas Fri
    through early next week.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    hagen/gr/al/mt