Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 180501
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 181005
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    605 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0915 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...
    A tropical wave extends from 06N59W to 15N59W moving W at 10-15
    kt. The wave coincides with shortwave 700 mb troughing between
    56W-61W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave
    axis near 10N. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-13N
    between 52W-61W.

    A tropical wave extends from 08N66W to 17N66W moving W at 10-15
    kt. The wave coincides with shortwave 700 mb troughing between
    64W-68W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave
    axis near 15N. Isolated moderate convection is from 11N-18N
    between 62W-69W.

    A tropical wave extends from 06N83W to 16N83W moving W at 10-15
    kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing over the SW
    Caribbean Sea. Dry NE to E flow aloft is noted on water vapor
    imagery on the southeastern periphery of an upper level ridge
    anchored near 17N80W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
    convection is from 06N-14N between 76W-85W.

    ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
    The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
    07N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
    07N20W to 09N26W to 06N38W to 07N54W. Scattered moderate
    convection is from 05N-12N between 22W-43W.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...
    A stationary front extends from the southern Florida peninsula
    near 26N81W westward to 27N90W then curves SW to 23N94W to the
    coast of southern Mexico near 18N94W. The front is supported aloft
    by a middle to upper level trough progressing eastward over the
    offshore waters of the far northwestern SW North Atlc waters this
    morning. Most convection...scattered showers and isolated
    tstms...are occurring across eastern portions of the basin S of
    28N E of 87W...including the southern Florida peninsula. Other
    isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the SW Gulf S of
    22N between 91W-95W in the vicinity of the front. The front is
    expected to drift SE through the next couple of days and gradually
    become diffuse by Wednesday night. Fresh to strong N-NE winds
    will prevail through Wednesday night and then weaken slightly
    into moderate to occasional fresh through early Thursday. Surface
    ridging is expected to remain in place across the SE CONUS the
    remainder of the week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...
    An upper level anticyclone is centered over the western Caribbean
    near 17N80W and is providing mostly dry air aloft between 70W-
    80W. Scattered showers and strong tstms are occurring S of 14N W
    of 79W in association with a tropical wave along 83W. Widely
    scattered showers and isolated tstms are also N of 16N W of 84W.
    Farther east...another tropical wave along 66W is providing for
    widely scattered showers and tstms between 62W-67W...while a
    third tropical wave remains to the E of Windward Islands along
    59W. The third wave carries more active convection that is
    expected to impact the Lesser Antilles Wednesday through early
    Thursday. Elsewhere...moderate to fresh trades prevail and are
    expected to persist through Wednesday...gradually increasing
    across the eastern and central Caribbean by Wednesday night as
    the pressure gradient strengthens.

    ...HISPANIOLA...
    A narrow upper level trough axis extends along 69W over the island
    between two upper level anticyclonic circulations...one centered
    near 18N64W and the other centered over the western Caribbean Sea
    near 17N80W. Most of the island is under fair skies this morning.
    Looking ahead...a tropical wave will skirt S of the island
    Wednesday night and bring a higher potential for shower and tstm
    activity through Thursday night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...
    A stationary front extends from 32N70W SW to the southern Florida
    peninsula near 26N80W and continues to slowly drift eastward. The
    front is supported aloft by a middle to upper level trough axis
    extending from over the offshore waters of the Carolinas
    southwestward to over the NE Gulf of Mexico waters. Scattered
    showers and isolated tstms are occurring primarily N of the front
    and W of 76W south of the front. A pre-frontal surface trough is
    analyzed from 25N71W to 32N65W and continues to provide focus for
    widely scattered showers and isolated tstms from 22N-32N between
    59W-67W. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlc are under
    the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high
    centered near 33N37W.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    HUFFMAN