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Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri May 21 2021
Corrected to add mention of gale-force winds for the Atlantic low
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low
pressure area centered about 300 miles northeast of Bermuda have
diminished somewhat over the past several hours, and the system has
not yet acquired subtropical storm characteristics. However,
the low is producing gale-force winds, and any increase in
organization would result in advisories being initiated on the
system later today or tonight as it moves westward to
west-southwestward to the northeast of Bermuda. Subsequently,
the low is forecast to move northeastward into a more hostile
environment by Saturday night or Sunday. Additional information on
this low pressure area can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products, including a
tropical storm watch, issued by the Bermuda Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. Surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a
well-defined low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico has
winds of 30-35 mph near and east of the center. The associated
shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited, but any increase
in this activity may result in the formation of a short-lived
tropical depression or storm before the system moves inland over the
northwestern Gulf coast tonight, and potential tropical cyclone
advisories may be needed as early as this afternoon. Regardless of
development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions
of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana through Saturday.
Given the complete saturation of soils with ongoing river flooding
along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, heavy rain could lead
to flash, urban, and additional riverine flooding across this
region. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding
potential can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Forecaster Beven/Papin
Original author: NHC
