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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Satellite wind data indicate that tropical-storm-force winds are
occuring on the east side of an elongated low pressure system
located about 700 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula. Any improvement in the organization of
the circulation would lead to the system being designated a
tropical storm, and that is expected to occur later today or
Saturday. For more information on this system, please see
High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Tropical Analysis and
Forecast Branch.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. Another area of low pressure is located about 1300 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The
associated showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of
organization, but are still mostly confined to the southeast of the
center. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for
development during the next day or so, and a tropical depression is
expected to form over the weekend while the system moves generally
westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
3. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
off the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a tropical
wave. Gradual development of this system is expected during the
next several days, and it could become a tropical depression early
next week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
Forecaster Cangialosi
Original author: NHC
