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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 22 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Showers and thunderstorms association with an area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to show signs of
organization. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the
circulation has become better defined since early today.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for continued development,
and if these development trends continue, a tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form later tonight or early Monday
while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph, away from the coast
of Mexico. Additional information on this system can found in high
seas forecasts issued by the NOAA National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. An area of disturbed weather off the coast of southern Mexico is
associated with some disorganized shower activity. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be favorable for some gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late
this week offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico while the
system move west-northwestward or northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
Forecaster Brown
Original author: NHC
