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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Central Caribbean Sea (AL99):
Earlier satellite wind data indicated that a small but well-defined
area of low pressure in the central Caribbean Sea was producing
winds of 25-30 mph. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity with this system remains disorganized, and nearby dry air
is forecast to prevent much additional development as the system
begins to drift slowly westward over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
2. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is developing along a frontal boundary just
to the southeast of Bermuda. This non-tropical low is forecast to
move southeastward across the central subtropical Atlantic over
warmer sea surface temperatures during the next few days, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to
gradually acquire tropical characteristics. A subtropical or
tropical storm could form by the latter part of this week, as the
system continues moving eastward followed by a turn northeastward by
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster Papin
Original author: NHC
