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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Central Caribbean Sea (AL99):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean
Sea are associated with a small low pressure area. Although the
thunderstorm activity has recently increased over the southwestern
portion of the low, nearby dry air is forecast to prevent much
additional development of the system as it begins to drift slowly
westward over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
2. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is developing along a frontal boundary just
to the southeast of Bermuda. This non-tropical low is forecast to
move southeastward across the central subtropical Atlantic over
warmer sea surface temperatures during the next few days, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to
gradually acquire tropical characteristics. A subtropical or
tropical storm could form by the latter part of this week, as the
system continues moving eastward followed by a turn northeastward by
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Forecaster Brown
Original author: NHC
