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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 2 2016
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. An elongated area of low pressure continues to produce a large area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend several
hundred miles off the southern coast of Mexico. Upper-level winds
are expected to become more conducive for development, and the
disturbance should gradually consolidate during the next couple of
days, with a tropical depression likely to form late this weekend
or early next week while it moves west-northwestward near the coast
of Mexico. Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of
Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Locally
heavy rain, flash floods, and mud slides are likely in these areas
through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
2. A weak area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
few showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this system
should be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds. This low
is expected to drift northward and then begin moving eastward early
next week while being pulled into the circulation of the larger
tropical disturbance near the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Forecaster Berg
Original author: NHC
